Going into the 2026 season, a lot of the talk surrounding the Boston Red Sox is around their starting pitching. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow pivoted after Alex Bregman signed with the Chicago Cubs to Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Ranger Suárez. It was an odd pivot at the time, considering he never addressed replacing Bregman.
Breslow wants to build his roster around his starting pitching. Signing Suárez and making a couple of trades solidified his rotation. On paper, it’s rather clear as to what the rotation will look like aside from an injury on Opening Day.
However, there are going to be some pitchers who are going to make the case to break camp in the rotation, and one of them is predicted to have a breakout season in Boston.
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Boston’s projected rotation is Garrett Crochet, Suárez, Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello, and Johan Oviedo. Gray was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in the offseason, and Oviedo was acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Those two trades will make it harder for prospects Payton Tolle and Connelly Early to make the roster, barring an injury.
However, that doesn’t mean either won’t be called up at some point in 2026. Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report predicted each team’s breakout pitcher this year. Early was tabbed as a breakout pitcher for Boston this summer.
“While Payton Tolle was the more hyped pitching prospect, Early outperformed him in September and parlayed that into a postseason start. Now he’s competing with offseason pickup Johan Oviedo for the No. 5 starter job. Even if he starts the year at Triple-A, he should be the first starter called on when reinforcements are needed, and his brilliant 29-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 19.1 innings was a good tease of his long-term potential,” Reuter wrote.
Unless an injury occurs, Early likely begins the season in Triple-A with the Worcester Red Sox. That doesn’t mean he won’t see the Fenway Park mound this year. His work late last season made him an easy call-up candidate.
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Just how good was Early in September for manager Alex Cora? The sample size wasn’t big, but it was promising. In 19.1 innings, he was 1-2 with a 2.33 ERA with 29 strikeouts and just four walks. That led to a staggering 7.3 K/BB ratio. A little more run support and his numbers would have been eye-popping.
However, when it came to the playoffs, Early got the start in the deciding Game 3 against the New York Yankees in the wild-card round. Lucas Giolito was lost for the postseason with an elbow injury. Cora decided to go with Early at Yankee Stadium. He allowed three runs in 3.2 innings with six strikeouts and six hits, but he gave Cora a little more than he hoped for. The problem was that Cam Schlittler was just better on the other side for the Yankees.
Early is certainly someone to watch this spring. He has all the stuff to be in an MLB rotation. It is easy to see why Reuter thinks he can break out in 2026. However, a strong spring training could create difficult decisions for the Red Sox next month. That is something Cora would welcome.
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