The Boston Red Sox are almost certainly going to open the 2026 MLB playoffs by going to Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees in the best-of-three AL Wild Card Series.
There’s just one specific scenario where that wouldn’t happen.
It’s the time of the MLB season when all kinds of confusing breakdowns show that the way things probably will be isn’t the way that they’re guaranteed to be, and that’s the case here.
The Yankees have already locked themselves into the top Wild Card spot in the AL. That comes with the 4-seed, and it means they host the 5-seed (second Wild Card team) in a best-of-three series to begin the postseason.
The Red Sox are almost certainly going to be that 5-seed, and if that happens, TV executives will certainly smile at their good fortune with this matchup.
There’s just one way it can be spoiled.
Scenario for Avoiding Red Sox-Yankees
There’s one path in which the Red Sox don’t play the Yankees in the Wild Card Round.
It has four different elements.
The Cleveland Guardians first have to beat the Red Sox on Thursday at Fenway Park.
The Guardians then have to win two of their three games over the Kansas City Royals on the weekend.
The Red Sox have to be swept by the Chicago Cubs.
And the Chicago White Sox have to win their final four games — one over the Royals, and three over the Colorado Rockies.
This would lead to the White Sox, Red Sox and Guardians all having 85-77 records.
The White Sox would win the AL Central Division because they hold the tiebreaker with the Guardians.
That would leave the Guardians and Red Sox to determine the 5-6 spots in the American League.
They were 3-3 head-to-head this season, so that can’t be the tiebreaker. It would then go to intra-division record, of which the Guardians have a better mark.
That would mean Cleveland would win a same-record tie with Boston and take the 5-seed and go to Yankee Stadium.
The Red Sox would instead travel to the AL West Division champion, which could still be the Houston Astros or Texas Rangers.
In this case, the White Sox would win the AL Central and get the bye.
The Red Sox and Guardians would have equal 85-77 records, with 3-3 head to head, but Cleveland has a much stronger intra-division record so they would get the 2nd Wild Card seed and play in the Bronx.
(2/3)
— Josh Brogadir (@JoshBrogadirTV) September 24, 2026
How Red Sox Could Play Yankees Later
If the Red Sox and Yankees don’t meet in the Wild Card Round, they couldn’t meet until the ALCS.
The winner of the Yankees’ 4-5 Wild Card Series will take on the 1-seed Tampa Bay Rays in the Divisional Round. The other side will play the AL Central champion, the 2-seed.
Only with wins in each of the first two rounds of the postseason could the Red Sox and Yankees meet in what would surely be an epic ALCS.
This Crazy Scenario Stops Red Sox From Playing Yankees in Playoffs