Oddsmakers are pointing toward an uncomfortable outcome for Boston, with a heated American League East rival emerging as the betting favorite to sign former Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito. According to a report by Adam Martin of Bookies.com, market momentum has begun to tilt toward a divisional landing spot for the veteran right-hander.
The betting shift mirrors growing league buzz that the Baltimore Orioles are more than casually involved. NESN.com last week reported that the Baltimore Orioles are “seriously considering” Giolito as it looks to fortify a rotation it hopes will carry the team deep into October, a move that would sting the Red Sox, given Giolito’s production in Boston last season and the premium teams place on keeping established starters out of divisional rivals’ hands.
The Red Sox had at least a chance to keep the nine-year veteran with 71 career wins by exercising their end of his $19 million mutual option following the 2025 season — after his two-year, $38.5 million deal expired. But Giolito declined his end of the option, rendering any team decision irrelevant.
No Qualifying Offer Extended to Giolito
Giolito was also eligible to receive a qualifying offer from the team, set by MLB at $22.05 million for a one-year contract. If the team extended the offer, Giolito could have simply accepted and automatically re-signed with Boston.
But the Red Sox chose to let the 31-year-old, who missed all of 2024 with an elbow injury that required surgery, walk as a free agent rather than try to keep him with a qualifying offer.
Giolito’s Playoff Absence May Have Soured Red Sox
Giolito probably did not help his cause with the Red Sox by coming down with another elbow ailment at the tail end of the season that required the team to leave him off its playoff roster for the Wild Card Series against the New York Yankees — Boston’s first postseason appearance since 2021.
The injury forced the Red Sox to move regular No. 3 starter Brayan Bello up to the second slot after Cy Young Award runner-up Garrett Crochet held the Bronx Bombers to four hits and a single run over 7 2/3 innings in Game 1, pacing the Red Sox victory.
But Bello lasted just 2 1/3 innings as the Red Sox lost Game 2, 4-3, and rookie Connelly Early was then the only alternative for Game 3. In only his fifth major league start, Early allowed three runs in 3 2/3 innings. But the Red Sox scored none and ended their season with a 4-0 loss.
Giolito’s injury proved to be a short-term one at the time, but his untimely ailment may be playing a role in the fact that the 2012 Washington Nationals first-round draft pick has yet to land a new contract with about one week to go before spring training camps open.
Oddsmakers Favor Orioles to Sign Giolito
While Giolito appears unlikely to go unsigned for that entire week, the question is where he will end up. According to Martin’s Bookies.com report, the Orioles lead the betting odds at +275, or a 26.7 percent chance.
“The Baltimore Orioles are looking to get back into the playoffs after a down season, and they have been connected to starting pitching throughout free agency. Signing Giolito would be a nice get for an Orioles rotation that could surely be helped by having the former All-Star in it,” Martin wrote Monday.
Coming in second on the Bookies.com betting odds are the St. Louis Cardinals at +400, a 20 percent chance. The Atlanta Braves currently rank third at +550, or a 15.4 percent chance of signing the veteran right-hander.
Oddsmakers Favor Ex-Red Sox $38.5 Million Starter to Land With Heated Rival