What the Boston Red Sox plan to do at the July 31 trade deadline remains a significant question mark. When they charged into the All-Star break on a 10-game winning streak, they looked certain to be “buyers,” looking to add talent in a bid to fulfill their preseason pledge to field a playoff team this season.
The break came and went, and the Red Sox lost four of their first five games of the second “half.” Now what?
Despite the mini-skid, Boston is still in playoff contention, clinging to a half-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays for the third and final American League Wild Card spot prior to Wednesday’s finale of the a three-game series against the Phillies in Philadelphia.
Red Sox Trade Deadline Decision: Buy, Sell or Stand Pat
But with seven games remaining before deadline day (an off-day for the team) how Boston fares in those contests may determine whether chief of baseball operations Craig Breslow decides to make trades to improve the team, even if it means sacrificing prospects?
Or does he effectively give up on the season, trading away players on the big league roster to obtain new prospects for the Red Sox farm system? Or, as top MLB insider Jeff Passan suggested on Tuesday, does he simply “stand pat,” letting the team make their run at the postseason with the roster they currently have, for better or worse?
According to a prediction by MLB analyst Mike Axisa of CBS Sports, Breslow will add pitching — specifically he will target one of the most sought-after hurlers who is believed to be available, Pittsburgh Pirates seven-year veteran righty Mitch Keller, a 2023 National League All-Star.
“Just about every contender has checked in with the Pirates about Keller, who is a rock solid mid-rotation starter with the upside for more,” Axisas wrote on Wednesday. “Keller is good as he is and Boston is the kind of team that can help him unlock that next level. They also have a deep prospect base, deep enough to pique Pittsburgh’s interest even while making the tippy top guys (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, etc.) off-limits.”
Keller comes with three years remaining after 2025 on his five-season, $77 million contract.
But, if not Anthony or Mayer, who would the Red Sox be likely to offer in exchange for Keller, who has posted a respectable 3.53 ERA in a league-leading 21 starts this season?
Jarren Duran Called Top Pirates Target
According to Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sportswriter Noah Hiles, the answer is simple: Jarren Duran. The 28-year-old has been a frequent subject of trade speculation for the Red Sox, with a combination of power and blinding speed that makes him an attractive target for any number of teams.
“Duran has regressed this year but still remains a productive player, entering the week worth 2.5 bWAR and an MLB-leading 10 triples,” Hiles wrote. “He would come with three years of remaining control and is arbitration eligible next year. The Pirates offense needs a true difference-maker. Duran fits that title.”
Even while protecting Anthony and Mayer, the Red Sox have prospects to offer. Hiles suggested that if Keller was dealt to the Yankees, they could accept New York’s No. 1 prospect George Lombard Jr., a middle infielder, in return.
Could the Red Sox match the offer of Lombard without giving up Duran? Very possibly. Lombard is rated the No. 32 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline. The Red Sox have their own middle-infield prospect, Franklin Arias, rated No. 36. But Arias is one year younger, at 19, than Lombard. A package of Arias and a couple of lower-ranked Red Sox prospects could make an attractive package to extract Keller from the Pirates.
Red Sox Predicted to Execute Deadline Trade For All-Star $77 Million Righty