The race to sign generational free agent slugger Juan Soto is coming down to the wire, with the 26-year-old Dominican Republic native anticipated by most Major League Baseball insiders and experts to make his decision this weekend. If not over the weekend, then Soto is widely expected to decide during the MLB Winter Meetings which start Sunday and run through Dec. 12.
The Soto signing sweepstakes appears to have come down to three teams, the New York Yankees where Soto played his 2024 season, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays are reportedly still in the running for Soto, but are considered long shots.
Predictions about where Soto will land remain all over the map, with experts seeming to be equally divided among the top three teams. The only thing that seems certain at this point is that no one can agree on the clear favorite to obtain Soto’s services, possibly for the next 15 years.
Investors Put Real Money on Red Sox Winning Soto Race
But there is one place where prognosticators actually back up their predictions with their money, and that is the prediction markets. A prediction market is an exchange where investors can purchase contracts based on the outcome of future events.
Because investors are putting up real money, they have an actual stake in the accuracy of their predictions. As a result, prediction markets can be highly accurate, as investors must consider all factors involved in determining a future result if they want to make money rather than lose it.
In the recent presidential election, the prediction market Polymarket was more accurate in predicting the actual outcome than polls and pundits, according to a study at the University of Cincinnati.
So which team do Polymarket investors believe has the best chance of signing Soto? As of Saturday, the answer is pretty clear. The Red Sox are heavy favorites.
As of December 7, investors on Polymarket give Boston a 58 percent chance of signing Soto. The second-most likely team to sign him, the Yankees, has a 30 percent chance according to Polymarket. The Mets are close behind at 28 percent.
Both the Dodgers and Blue Jays are way off the pace, each with a mere 2 percent chance of landing Soto, according to Polymarket.
Will a ‘Mystery Team’ Shake Up Bidding at Last Minute?
Perhaps aware that Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, has a history of claiming that a “mystery team” will shake up the bidding on any of his free agent clients, a few Polymarket investors appear to be trying to figure out if a “mystery team” could land Soto. As a result, a small number have laid their money on the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants, neither of whom has been publicly linked to Soto in any meaningful way.
But the investors give each team a less-than-one-percent chance of signing Soto — but greater than a zero chance.
It should be noted that none of those numbers should be taken as investment advice of any kind. Playing prediction markets, like playing any markets or any form of gambling is risky. But the insights of those who have chosen to put their money where their mouths are when it comes to predicting Soto’s next team may give a clearer understanding of what will actually happen, possibly as soon as Sunday night.
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Prediction Market Investors Make Red Sox Huge Favorite in Juan Soto Signing Race