Barring a 2011-esque collapse, the Boston Red Sox are slated to reach the playoffs for a second straight season. And, for the second straight season, all signs point to Boston heading down to the Bronx for a three game wild card series against the New York Yankees.
With the newer three game wild card format and then days off in the following rounds, most MLB teams have adopted the idea of a limited starting rotation in recent years. While the Sox do have six options within their rotation, it feels likely they’ll go with a three-man rotation come playoff time.
And it looks like we’re going to get a preview of that rotation this weekend as Boston hosts the Kansas City Royals at Fenway Park. In order, the Red Sox probable starters this weekend are Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, and Payton Tolle.
Red Sox Playoff Rotation Preview
Boston went down to the Bronx for the wild card series in the 2025 season and fell two games to one. Garrett Crochet was outstanding in game one as the Sox won to start the series, but they faltered in games two and three as Brayan Bello and Connelly Early couldn’t lead Boston to victory.
This time around, the Red Sox won’t have Crochet as a starter; at best, he’ll be coming out of the bullpen in a limited role. But outside of that, the Boston rotation should be set up to give them a better chance than last season.
Sonny Gray has pitched to a Cy Young level all season for Boston, in his age 36 season no less. It may well be Gray’s best season of his career: he has a record of 17-4 with a 2.69 ERA. His strikeout numbers are down from previous seasons, but that may actually be helping him; instead of getting into deep counts, Gray has excelled at inducing weak contact early in counts, helping him limit his pitch count and get deeper into games.
Suarez and Tolle have been less consistent than Gray this season, but each of their top end potential is just as high, if not higher than Gray’s.
After a great first three months of the season, Suarez cooled way off in July and August. He is known as a big game pitcher, so the hope is that his final couple of regular season starts will help him get in a groove as he prepares to take the mound in Yankee Stadium in the playoffs.
Tolle has been a Yankee killer in his two starts against them this season. He allowed one run on three hits while striking out 11 back in April, and threw a seven inning one-hitter with seven K’s against them in June.
Other Options for Sox Rotation
Of the other three starters on Boston’s staff, only one could theoretically push to start a game in the wild card series. That is Jake Bennett, who has had a great rookie season. The 25-year-old has a record of 9-7 with an ERA of 3.69 in 105 innings pitched.
Brayan Bello and Patrick Sandoval are the other two options. Bello has been a mess as a starter this year, but has succeeded out of the bullpen, which is what his role will likely be. Sandoval came back from injury and July, and has a 1-5 record with a 4.58 ERA. He will also be a long-relief option out of the pen in October.
Red Sox Probable Starters Against Royals: Preview of Playoff Rotation?