Before this season ends, the Chicago Cubs will remove Ryan Pressly from the closer’s role and replace him with a more reliable option.
That is the sentiment expressed by Eno Sarris of The Athletic, who highlights a statistic Pressly has produced “that could be cause for alarm.” In an article on Tuesday examining numbers from the first month-plus of the season that “are already telling us that something is wrong,” Sarris warns of Pressly posting a Stuff+ rate that should be of great concern to the Cubs.
Stuff+ is a stat that measures the raw nastiness of a pitch based purely on its physical traits — things like release point, velocity, spin rate, and movement. It compares a pitcher’s secondary pitches to their primary fastball and even factors in things like seam-shifted wake and deception from unique release points. Trained on run values, the model hints that pitchers might have some control over weak contact, even if the jury is still out.
Stuff+ tends to matter more for relievers than starters because relievers lean heavily on raw stuff — especially velocity — to get outs in short bursts. Since they don’t have to pace themselves for multiple innings, they can max out their fastballs, and Stuff+ captures that edge better than most metrics. For pitchers coming out of the bullpen, nasty usually plays, and Stuff+ is built to spot exactly that.
Stat Indicates Ryan Pressly’s ‘Stuff’ Ranks Near Bottom of MLB Closers
GettyChicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell takes the ball from closer Ryan Pressly after he gave up nine runs without recording a single out in the 11th inning of Tuesday’s game against San Francisco.
And so it is that Sarris stresses the need for Chicago to be concerned over Pressly’s Stuff+ rate of 93, which is tied with Tommy Kahnle of the Detroit Tigers for second-to-last in MLB among relievers who have at least three saves this season, ahead of only Texas Rangers closer Luke Jackson.
“Team-wise, the Cubs might be okay. Porter Hodge looks the part of a high-stuff, high-leverage reliever, and improving the pen is something that is exceedingly possible in-season. There are always relievers available,” Sarris wrote. “For the player, though, this isn’t necessarily a list you want to be on. Pressly’s declining stuff — he’s lost velocity and ride on the four-seam, which has become more cutter-like, and his curve is his only remaining above-average pitch — will probably cost him the closer’s role sooner rather than later.”
As if the underlying metrics aren’t enough cause for concern, the eye test from Pressly’s most recent outing on Tuesday certainly made Cubs fans nervous.
Entering a tied game against San Francisco in the top of the 11th inning, Pressly allowed nine runs to score, eight of them earned, without recording a single out, as the Giants ran away with a 14-5 win. The 36-year-old right-hander gave up five hits with a walk and a hit batter, and his ERA ballooned to 7.62.
“It’s all on me tonight,” Pressly said. “I didn’t do my job.”
Ryan Pressly’s Disastrous Outing Breaks Cubs Record for Extra-Inning Futility
The outburst broke the franchise record for runs allowed in an extra-inning frame, and it also represented the largest extra-inning loss in Cubs history.
“He couldn’t finish hitters, essentially. That was it,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “And it snowballed a little bit.”
Counsell and Pressly both waved off any suggestion that the reliever’s ineffectiveness was caused by a right knee issue that prior to Tuesday had limited Pressly to just two appearances since April 20.
“We’re good,” Counsell said.
“Everything is fine. Body felt great,” Pressly would later add.
But the Cubs, who acquired Pressly from Houston in January for High-A reliever Juan Bello, will likely be exploring the trade market for a replacement before the deadline.
MLB Analyst Urges Cubs to Address Alarming Development: ‘Something is Wrong’