The Chicago White Sox own the first overall pick in the MLB Draft, giving them a chance to draft a face-of-the-franchise player. From the minute the team won the draft lottery, the consensus was that Chicago would take UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky.
However, the latest mock from Keith Law of The Athletic suggests a different approach. Law has the White Sox taking high school shortstop Grady Emerson with the No. 1 overall pick.
Law writes, “I keep hearing that the White Sox are leaning towards the two main prep shortstops, Emerson and Jacob Lombard, although I can’t rule out that this is posturing to try to get a better deal with Roch Cholowsky, the putative top prospect in the class.”
Such a move would be unexpected for the White Sox, perhaps aimed at optimizing the acquired talent for their bonus pool. Chicago has the third-largest pool in the draft at $17.592 million, behind the Tampa Bay Rays and Pittsburgh Pirates, but much of that is tied to the No. 1 pick ($11.35 million).
Who is Grady Emerson?
Emerson is considered the top high school prospect in the 2026 MLB Draft. MLB Pipeline ranks him as the No. 2 prospect in the class, behind Cholowsky. Law has him as the No. 5 prospect in the class.
Emerson is a left-handed-hitting shortstop out of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. MLB Pipeline rates him as a 65 future value prospect, the type of talent that teams build their entire franchise around.
In Law’s words, “Emerson at No. 1 makes sense if you think he’s the next Kevin McGonigle.”
McGonigle’s career has gotten off to a great start with the Detroit Tigers, a division rival of the White Sox. The Tigers’ shortstop and third baseman is slashing .293/.395/.435 in 39 games. His 1.5 fWAR leads all American League rookies, and his 137 wRC+ trails only Chase DeLauter (152) and Munetaka Murakami (149).
Law compared the two prospects, noting that Emerson is the better defender out of high school while McGonigle offered more power upside.
In just about any other year, Emerson would be the consensus top prospect. But that honor belongs to Cholowsky this year.
Why the White Sox Would Take Grady Emerson Over Roch Cholowsky
However, the one element of scarcity in the draft is dollars. While every pick in the top 10 rounds carries an assigned bonus, teams are allowed to sign players above or below the amount. That creates an additional layer of strategy for some clubs, who might opt to take a player who will sign well below the slot value and use that money on a later pick if a highly-rated player drops due to signing concerns.
So the White Sox’s decision to take Emerson could come down to which player offers the better deal. Cholowsky is likely to command a higher signing bonus between the two players, perhaps even break the signing bonus draft record in the slot era (since 2012). The record is $9.25 million by Chase Burns and Charlie Condon in 2024.
If Emerson is the No. 1 overall pick, his signing bonus is more likely to come in the $8.5 million range. That figure comes from taking the 75% value of the pick’s slot value if Emerson agrees to a physical at the MLB Draft Combine. Theoretically, that could save the White Sox $1 million with the No. 1 overall pick. Chicago’s next selection is at No. 41, which comes with a $2.446 million slot value.
So theoretically, the White Sox could gain two blue-chip prospects with their top 2 picks. However, the gap between how the club projects Cholowsky and Emerson to develop would have to be small enough to make the haircut worthwhile in the first place.
Latest Mock from The Athletic Has White Sox Making a Shocking Draft Decision