The Chicago White Sox had a marked improvement last season from a major league record 121 losses. A 19-win improvement from 2024-25 is nothing to sneer at.
Experts think they will make another leap in 2026.
ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle put together a list of the top 5 breakout teams for 2026, with the White Sox listed at four.
For all intensive purposes, Doolittle defines a breakout team as “a club that wins at least 10 more games than what would be expected by its established level of play.”
After a disastrous 2024, the White Sox could very well be on the up-and-up.
What is Doolittle’s Reasoning for the Chicago White Sox?
Doolittle’s key to this breakout is “prospect ascension”.
“Maybe I’m jumping the gun a bit on the White Sox, whose definition for ‘breakout’ remains ‘less bad,'” Doolittle wrote. But you can sense the team is starting to take shape, and although last year’s 19-win leap will be hard to replicate, it’s just as unlikely that the White Sox will take a step backward. There are too many young players who have a little big league time under their belts now, and Chicago hasn’t even started to gently add right-now major leaguers. I wouldn’t expect this season to be the breakout for this team, as in a return to playoff contention. More likely it’s a soft breakout, in the mold of the 2022 Orioles.”
The “Breakout Target”, according to Doolittle, is 71 wins. This would be an 11-win improvement, which would be a great sign for White Sox fans.
However, Doolittle places the probability of this happening at just 12%, a lukewarm mark to say the least.
The 2022 Baltimore Orioles seem like a good comparison for the current White Sox team. Both teams were coming off horrible stretches, giving fans not much hope for the future.
However, there is a stronger likelihood due to how Chicago finished the season and the growth of the prospects.
Why 71 Wins Isn’t Far Off
Before the All-Star Break, the White Sox were 32-65, a .330 win percentage. After the break, the White Sox were 28-37, good for a .430 win percentage.
That .430 win percentage would’ve had the White Sox at 70 wins over 162 games.
This was mostly due to their top prospects getting extensive playing time together.
Catchers Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero broke out, with both hitting above .265.
Shortstop Colson Montgomery went from being labeled as a bust early in the season and struggling in Triple-A to success. He made adjustments to his swing with hitting director Ryan Fuller, and hit 21 home runs in 71 games for Chicago, finishing fifth in the American League Rookie of the Year voting.
Lenyn Sosa and Miguel Vargas proved to their fans that they were ready to break out, hitting 22 and 16 home runs, respectively.
After signing Munetaka Murakami, this Chicago team has plenty of firepower on offense. Many more are waiting in the wings to join what will be the next contending White Sox roster.
In addition, the White Sox had one of the worst records in one and two-run games in 2025. They remedied this by finally signing a closer in Seranthony Dominguez, who will help greatly in that department.
It was because of the young players that Chicago saw a significant improvement both in the standings and on the field.
While they may not be quite ready to leap into contention, they will keep improving because of these players.
White Sox Poised to ‘Break Out’ in 2026