The Cleveland Guardians do this seemingly every year.
Maybe they aren’t in control of the AL Central Division or even a playoff spot for the first half of the season, but by the time September rolls around, the Guardians have pushed into position. And usually, they hold onto one of those spots by the time October arrives, too.
That’s what has happened this year, and the final week of the regular season begins for most teams on Tuesday. It’s the final chance for the Guardians to secure a place in the playoffs, which begin next week.
The Guardians enter Tuesday in good spots. They’re a game up in the AL Central on the Chicago White Sox, and they also would hold an edge for an AL Wild Card spot if it came to that instead.
There’s still work to be done, though.
Guardians’ Magic Number for AL Central
The Guardians have six games to play and are one-game ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central, and Chicago holds the tiebreaker. That means the Guardians’ magic number to win the division is 6.
Any combination of six Cleveland wins and Chicago losses would give Cleveland the division title.
That means that if the Guardians win their six remaining games, it doesn’t matter what the White Sox do. The Guards would win the division.
It’s also likely that the AL Central winner ends up with the No. 2 seed in the American League over the AL West winner. If that happens, there’s a first-round bye. To make that happen, the Guardians would need to end with a better record than either the Astros or Rangers, whichever team won that division.
Guardians Magic Number for Playoff Clinch
The magic number for the Guardians to clinch a playoff spot is 3.
The Guardians are 81-75, and the key to making the playoffs in any capacity is to claim the American League’s third-and-final Wild Card spot.
If Cleveland does worse than the White Sox the rest of the way, the Guardians will still have a good opportunity. They’ll simply have to outperform whichever team finishes second in the AL West, or whichever team finishes fourth in the AL East.
Entering the final stretch, the Rangers are 78-78, one game up on the Astros in their division at 77-79. The Blue Jays are 77-80, and the Orioles are 76-81.
This looks a bit like the magic number should be 4, but here’s the catch: The only way the Rangers can equal the Guardians’ record is if they go 6-0 in the final week of the season. And yes, they’d hold the tiebreaker for a Wild Card spot. But if the Rangers win all six of their remaining games, they’d win their division and be irrelevant to Cleveland.
So the Guardians need just three wins combined with losses by the Astros to ensure at least a Wild Card spot.
Guardians’ Magic Numbers Updated for Making Playoffs, Winning AL Central