The Tigers went with quantity over quality at the MLB trade deadline on Thursday, adding a trove of relief pitchers and bringing in two back-end starters–Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack–to bolster a shaky rotation. The team’s inability to land a quality No. 2 or 3 starter only shines a brighter light on just how reliant the team is on ace Tarik Skubal, who remains the very heavy favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award.
Skubal is 10-3, with a 2.09 ERA and a WHIP that sits at a remarkable 0.84. In 133.2 innings, he has struck out 171 and walked only 19 batters.
But with Reese Olson injured and gone for the season, the Tigers do not have much of a 1-2 punch. Jack Flaherty (6-10, 4.51 ERA, 1.277 WHIP) and Casey Mize (9-4, 3.43 ERA, 1.325 WHIP) are currently slotted as the No. 2 and 3 starters.
Moreover, Skubal is soon to be due a massive new contract, as he is currently on a $10.5 million deal and has one more year of arbitration remaining. There is angst in Detroit that Skubal will soon bolt for a rich contract with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets, a contract the Tigers can’t match.
Tarik Skubal a $400 Million Man?
At Spotrac, Skubal’s market value is listed at $36.8 million per year, meaning an eight-year contract will be worth $295 million. That might be underselling. Last winter, an evaluator told the Detroit Free Press, “If everything goes right, he will get $400 million in free agency in two years. More realistically, something will go wrong because he’s a pitcher, and that’ll drive his price down to the $300 million range.”
Can the Tigers afford $400 million for Skubal?
Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, which means he is very unlikely to sign an extension, and that he will give no home-team discounts to Detroit.
Tigers Running Short on Skubal Time
The result of all this has been the perception that the Tigers have two more years to work with Skubal before he leaves Detroit and winds up on one of the coasts. In that light, fans wanted GM Scott Harris to be more aggressive at the trade deadline, because Tarik Time is running out.
Harris clapped back at that notion.
“I think this idea of a window is an illusion,” Harris said, via the Freep.
“Tarik Skubal is certainly leading the way, and he has been leading the way here,” Harris said in his meeting with reporters, “but there are a lot of really talented players, both in the big leagues right now and that are coming through this really talented system. I’m not looking at this as a window. It doesn’t mean that I’m shorting the present for the future by any means, but this whole idea of a window is not really filtering into my head because it’s my job to get to the postseason every single year if I can.”
Tigers Farm System Among MLB’s Best
Indeed, the Tigers had the prospects on hand to be much more aggressive in their pursuit of 2025 help. For a team that bounced out of its July freefall with four straight wins, currently in a tie with the Blue Jays (who were aggressive) for the top spot in the AL, dealing off prospects with the chance at a World Series win this fall seemed reasonable.
Detroit has two of the Top 10 prospects in the game, per MLB Pipeline--shortstop Kevin McGonigle and outfielder Max Clark. Shortstop Bryce Rainer is No. 34, and the team has two others in the Top 100.
Harris sees those players as insurance for keeping the Tigers competitive for years to come.
He also sees the Tigers’ current situation as being pretty good, without selling out the farm system.
“We have a nine-game lead in the AL Central right now, and we just got a whole lot better today,” said Harris. “We’re going to keep winning as many games as we can and try to make good decisions to make sure that the city of Detroit can enjoy playoff baseball for as many years as possible.”
Tigers GM Claps Back at Tarik Skubal ‘Window’ After MLB Trade Deadline