ESPN dropped an updated ranking of the top 2026 trade deadline candidates from Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel on Tuesday morning.
As expected, Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is No. 1 on the list.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan Shares Major Detroit Tigers Trade Deadline Outlook on Star LHP Tarik Skubal
GettyANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – JULY 18: Tarik Skubal #29 of the Detroit Tigers pitches during the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on July 18, 2026 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Ryan Sirius Sun/Getty Images)
ESPN’s article gives Skubal, who is set to be a free agent at the end of the season, a 60% chance of being traded.
“Considering the hole they’ve dug themselves, [the Tigers] are far more likely than not to move Skubal,” ESPN wrote.
Skubal is arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball. This season, the left-hander is 6-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 98 strikeouts in 82 2/3 innings across 14 starts. He missed time earlier in the year due to an elbow injury that required surgery.
The southpaw won the American League Cy Young Award the past two seasons. In 2024, he led MLB pitchers in bWAR (6.7) and posted a 2.39 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP and an MLB-leading 228 strikeouts. Last season, Skubal collected 241 strikeouts and led AL pitchers in bWAR (6.4) and ERA (2.21).
ESPN wrote “every single contending team” is a “best fit” for Skubal if the Tigers move him ahead of the Aug. 3 deadline. The publication added that the more realistic fits are the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays.
For the Brewers and Rays, acquiring Skubal at the deadline may be the only opportunity for the clubs to have a starting pitcher of Skubal’s caliber who hasn’t been developed within their organization.
But for big market teams like the Dodgers, Braves and Phillies, they likely would want to acquire Skubal with plans to attempt to either extend or re-sign the left-hander, who has a strong chance to break the record for the largest contract signed by a starting pitcher this offseason (although the looming lockout could affect that).
Should the Tigers Trade Skubal?
The Tigers are in an interesting spot. They’re not in a postseason position with a poor 47-53 record. However, the club isn’t completely out of the playoff race.
Despite being six games under .500, Detroit is 4 1/2 games back of the third American League Wild Card spot and 6 1/2 games back of the Chicago White Sox for first place in the American League Central. If everything went their way over the next week, the Tigers would be in a playoff spot.
How Detroit plays from now until Aug. 3 will likely determine Skubal’s trade deadline fate. If the Tigers are in a position where they most likely won’t reach the postseason, cashing in on Skubal’s value before he hits free agency makes the most sense.
But if Detroit performs well over the next couple of weeks, the club may want to keep Skubal and see if it can make a deep postseason run. The Tigers have won 12 of their last 16 games and have a decent +33 run differential, so they appear to be a much better team than their record shows.
Jeff Passan Shares Major Detroit Tigers Trade Deadline Outlook on Tarik Skubal