The highly-anticipated arbitration showdown between the Detroit Tigers and reigning American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal will go down on February 4, reports Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic. The two sides will appear before a three-person panel to resolve a $13 million filing gap, the largest in the history of the arbitration process.
Assuming the parties don’t come to an agreement prior to the hearing, Skubal will either receive a $19 million salary or a $32 million payday for the 2026 season. As Stavenhagen points out, the arbitrators cannot choose a number between the two filing figures. They must either side with the team or the player.
If Skubal is successful, his $32 million pact will be the largest in arbitration history. Juan Soto‘s $31 million deal from the Yankees in 2024 is the current record. If the arbitrators side with the team, Skubal will fall just short of the record for a pitcher. David Price received $19.75 million from the Tigers back in 2015.
Tarik Skubal Could Set Precedent for Future Stars
The majority of MLB players reach the arbitration process after three seasons in the league. Strong performers can receive eligibility prior to the three-year mark through the Super Two designation. Players and teams typically agree to a salary before reaching the hearing stage. If an agreement isn’t reached, each side submits a salary figure and then argues its case before the three-person panel.
Player comparisons are essential to the arbitration system. The two sides base their arguments around similar players, both in terms of service time and production. Given this dynamic, the results of each hearing can have ramifications for future arguments. If a player like Skubal scores a major win, future superstars can build their cases off of his victory.
Skubal made $2.65 million in his first trip through arbitration following the 2023 season. After securing his first Cy Young in 2024, that number jumped to $10.15 million in his second go-round. He’ll now look to triple that mark in his final season before hitting free agency.
Skubal Could Still Be a Bargain
In a free agent market that saw Dylan Cease secure $30 million per season from Toronto and Ranger Suarez get $26 million a year from Boston, getting the back-to-back Cy Young winner for $32 million in 2026 could be seen as a value. Teams would certainly jump at that price if Skubal were available on the open market. Unless he works out an extension with Detroit, which is highly unlikely given the nature of his contract deliberations, Skubal should be the prize of the 2027 free agent class.
Skubal has delivered a sub-2.40 ERA in two straight seasons. He’s shaken off early-career injury concerns to toss 190+ innings in consecutive years. Skubal has somehow been even more dominant in the postseason, putting together a 2.04 ERA with a 12.7 K/9 across six playoff starts.
A breakout 2024 season earned Skubal a unanimous Cy Young selection. Garrett Crochet gave him some competition last year, but Skubal still earned 26 of 30 first-place votes. Skubal and Crochet are far and away the betting favorites to secure the award in 2026. The Detroit ace is looking to become the third pitcher to win three straight Cy Youngs, joining Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers on Verge of Highly-Anticipated Contract Talks