The Los Angeles Dodgers announced that superstar Shohei Ohtani is making his long-awaited return to the mound Monday night against the San Diego Padres. The news was surprising to say the least, as Ohtani is unable to be sent down to the minors for rehab starts. The last update fans got was that Ohanti had thrown 44 pitches over three simulated innings during last week’s Padres-Dodgers series. Now, just like that, he’s ready to roll.
Timing of Ohtani’s Return
Shohei Ohtani is back, and not a moment too soon. The Dodgers are desperate for arms, with rookie Roki Sasaki now potentially done for the season, and Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Tony Gonsolin all stuck on the injured list. As the playoff race tightens, Los Angeles needs to pull away from the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks in a loaded NL West.
What Should We Expect
While many fans probably envision Ohtani stepping on the mound and immediately being his old self, expectations should be tempered. It will take Ohtani a while to get stretched out and be able to pitch five or more innings. His first few starts back will likely be similar to those of an opener, as he should not be expected to go against lineups more than once.
As he continues to build up, the eyes will be on whether or not he has returned to form. In his pitching career with the Angels, he was an ace. From 2021-2023, Ohtani produced 11 fWAR (wins above replacement) on the mound and never posted an ERA above 3.2 or WHIP above 1.1.
The biggest reason for his success was due to his breaking balls. His breaking run value was in the top fifth percentile in the MLB in both 2022 and 2023. Pair that with a strikeout rate in the top sixth percentile, and you can see that Ohtani was fooling hitters left and right. If he’s aiming to surpass or even match his previous form, Ohtani will need to showcase elite breaking numbers again.
Impact on the NL MVP Race
The three-time MVP is looking to capture another trophy this season, and it feels like his return to being a two-way player almost locks it up. Last week, Ohtani was the heavy favorite to win the NL MVP with -270 odds according to ESPN BET. If he can provide any value pitching, it feels far-fetched for anyone to contest him in the award race.
Another MVP would give Ohtani four in the past five seasons, and put him second all-time in total MVP Awards. While most fans are convinced that Ohtani is one of the greatest ball players to ever walk the earth, he’s cementing it in the record books as well. If Shohei Ohtani can stay healthy and pitch at an above-average level, there’s a very realistic chance that he could reach or pass Barry Bonds’ seven Most Valuable Player awards.
The impact of Ohtani returning to the mound should be expected to be extremely impactful to both the Los Angeles Dodgers’ season and to the legacy of his career.
Expectations for Shohei Ohtani’s Return to the Mound