The Los Angeles Dodgers officially transferred Roki Sasaki to the 60-day injured list on Friday, a move that punctuates what has been one of the most disappointing rookie campaigns in recent memory. And it’s getting harder to ignore: Sasaki may already be a bust.
Sasaki landed on the injured list (IL) back on May 13 with a right shoulder impingement. At the time, the Dodgers downplayed the severity of the injury. But now, with Sasaki not expected back until after the All-Star break—and with the team acquiring journeyman Zach Penrod to fill out innings—the warning signs are impossible to miss.
From “Generational” to “Liability”
The hype around Sasaki was immense. The 23-year-old phenom came from Japan with a fastball that touched triple digits and a splitter that scouts called “unhittable.” Dodgers brass made a rare, aggressive international splash, and many believed they had secured the next Yu Darvish or Shohei Ohtani. Instead, they’ve gotten a pitcher with a 4.72 ERA across just eight starts, averaging fewer than 4.1 innings per outing.
More troubling: Sasaki’s command has completely unraveled. In just 34 1/3 innings, he’s walked 22 batters and struck out only 24. His strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.09) ranks near the bottom of all MLB starting pitchers with 30+ innings.
Statcast Paints a Bleak Picture
Sasaki’s surface-level stats are rough, but his underlying data is even worse. According to Statcast:
- His average exit velocity allowed is 90.4 mph, worse than the league average.
- His expected ERA sits at 6.08.
- Opponents are slugging .513 against him.
- His four-seamer once thought to be elite, has an expected slugging of .663.
His pitch arsenal—fastball (50.2%), splitter (32.9%), and slider (16.9%)—hasn’t fooled MLB hitters. While the splitter has been decent (.158 opponent BA), his slider and four-seamer are getting crushed. Sasaki’s chase rate (21.3%) and whiff rate (20.4%) are both far below league average, suggesting his pitches aren’t fooling anyone.
Even his mechanical consistency appears to be in question. Sasaki’s arm angle, spin direction, and vertical movement have all shown considerable variance from outing to outing—evidence that his shoulder discomfort may have been affecting him long before he hit the injured list.
Dodgers Lose More Than Just Innings
The Dodgers didn’t just invest money in Sasaki. They gambled with organizational credibility. They passed on other veteran options and international talents to clear room for Sasaki’s integration into the 2025 rotation. That gamble hasn’t paid off.
With each setback, questions about the team’s player development and scouting evaluations grow louder. Did they underestimate the adjustment from NPB to MLB? Did they rush Sasaki onto the mound before he was physically ready? And how will they recalibrate if he doesn’t bounce back in the second half?
Next Steps—and Low Expectations
For now, the Dodgers are tempering expectations. Sasaki will remain on the shelf until at least mid-July, and even then, there’s no guarantee he’ll return to the rotation. If the shoulder issue lingers or his mechanics remain inconsistent, a shutdown or rehab stint in Triple-A seems more likely.
It’s still early in Sasaki’s MLB career, and writing him off entirely would be premature. But it’s not too early to admit this experiment has gone sideways. The Dodgers needed an impact arm. What they got was a pitcher struggling to survive.
Dodgers Shut Down Projected Superstar as Bust Rumors Swirl