Barring a massive surprise, Tarik Skubal is going to shatter the record for a contract signed by a pitcher in Major League Baseball.
There are really only two questions: Will it be the Los Angeles Dodgers or another team that gives him the deal? And just how much will it be for?
There’s also the matter of a potential lockout this season that could both delay when Skubal signs but also impact the salary rules that govern the sport and determine just how much he’ll make.
It’s a lot of unknowns, but one thing is certain: Skubal is the top dog in this free agent class.
“Rare is the free agency period in which one player is so clearly head and shoulders above the rest,” ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote as part of an insightful new article on Thursday.
Tarik Skubal Contract Projection
Passan broke down a number of factors in Skubal’s free agency, but the most eye-catching part was when he compared him to Stephen Strasburg’s famous deal — and said he could double it.
“The number will be huge,” Passan writes. “Bear in mind that Skubal turns 30 in November and never before has a pitcher age 30 or older received more than Stephen Strasburg’s $245 million (on a seven-year deal) in free agency. Provided there is no salary cap, Skubal could get double that.”
For those keeping score at home, double of $245 million is $490 million.
Passan speculates that the deal could come in around 10 years, so Skubal could get $49 million per year — or more than a million per start.
“A deal of that magnitude would presumably be for at least a decade — the sort of commitment teams might balk at because of his age,” Passan writes. “But someone is going to pay an exorbitant amount for his services. And he is going to be at the heart of the salary cap debate all the while, because barely a handful of teams are interested in paying $50 million a year for 33 starts.”
At the end of the day, someone is going to pay the price. The Dodgers have to decide whether they’d rather have Skubal on their side or against them.
The way he pitches this postseason could also help determine just how tightly linked Skubal and the Dodgers want to be going forward.
Another Factor for Skubal
Skubal’s free agency is also boosted by something Passan discusses — this isn’t a great free agent class otherwise.
The best way, and maybe only way, for a team to make a splash will be to sign Skubal.
“Those that are will be in the mix for a two-time Cy Young Award winner whose fastball sits at 97 from the left side,” Passan writes. “His changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball, his slider not far beyond, and his control of all his pitches is impeccable. Skubal is what a starting pitcher is supposed to look like. And he’s the salvation of this class.”
Skubal and the Dodgers still have a World Series title to chase. But when that pursuit ends, win or lose, the baseball world’s eyes will be on the collective bargaining agreement, and on how Skubal fits into the whole picture.
Dodgers’ Tarik Skubal Gets $490 Million Contract Update