Tarik Skubal went 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 10 regular-season starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The left-hander struck out 70 batters and walked 13 in 62 innings.
The Dodgers acquired him from the Detroit Tigers just before the Aug. 3 trade deadline. Counting his 16 starts for Detroit, Skubal finished 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA. He struck out 186 batters in 158 2/3 innings.
The two-time American League Cy Young Award winner will become a free agent after the season. ESPN calls him the clear prize of this year’s free-agent class. Agent Scott Boras represents the 29-year-old, who turns 30 on Nov. 20.
Most ESPN insiders see the Dodgers and New York Mets as the serious bidders. The New York Yankees rank a close third in total mentions.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel asked 27 industry insiders to project Skubal’s contract.
Tarik Skubal About to Sign $355 Million Contract?
The 27 projections ranged from four years and $176 million to $500 million over nine or 10 years. The average projected contract was eight years and $355 million, which works out to $44.6 million per year.
That would top the pitcher record of $43.3 million per year, shared by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. The $355 million average also tops Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million contract, the largest guarantee for a pitcher.
Sixteen of the 27 projections or 59%, fell between $325 million and $400 million over seven to 10 years. That is the biggest cluster. Four insiders projected eight years and $400 million, the most common single projection.
Twenty-one of the 27 insiders or 78%, expect Skubal to sign before Dec. 1. The current collective bargaining agreement expires that day, when the expected lockout would begin.
What Could be Tarik Skubal’s Signing Bonus?
Sleeper teams: – Padres – White Sox – Angels
True contenders: – Dodgers – Tigers – Mets – Yankees
The Dodgers remain the favorite on Kalshi to sign Skubal
A big signing bonus could be another tool. One insider projected a bonus of nearly 20% of the guarantee. Half would be payable before Dec. 1.
For a $355 million contract, that stands at $70 million.
A bonus also would not shrink in a shortened season the way prorated salary would. Paying the bonus before Skubal joins a new team could also bring personal tax advantages.
His new team could sit in a state with higher income taxes than his offseason home. One agent described the strategy as getting as much money up front as possible.
Skubal’s injury history also came up. He has had three elbow procedures. Those were Tommy John surgery in 2016, flexor tendon surgery in 2022 and removal of loose bodies this year.
Some insiders think the injuries could push him toward a shorter deal aimed at the annual-value record.
Dodgers’ Tarik Skubal Predicted to Sign $355 Million Contract