The Miami Marlins won’t be going to the MLB playoffs, but there is something special that can be accomplished by the Marlins on the final day of the regular season on Sunday.
Otto Lopez still has a chance to win the NL batting title.
Batting average isn’t glorified the way it used to be, but a batting champion is still a remarkable feat.
Lopez led the National League in hitting for much of the year but fell off a little bit lately. He’ll need a special final day to get it done.
As it stands entering Sunday, the NL leader in batting average is Gabriel Moreno, the catcher from the Arizona Diamondbacks who is hitting .311.
In second place is Luis Arraez of the Philadelphia Phillies at .310. Arraez is unlikely to play on Sunday due to injury.
And then there’s Lopez, at .306.
The chances aren’t super strong, but they’re real for Lopez.
How Otto Lopez Can Win NL Batting Title
The first thing to note is that if Moreno raises his average any higher, it’ll be tough for Lopez to catch him.
But the good news there is that even a 1-for-4 day by Moreno lowers him below Arraez. It would take a strong hitting day, 1-for-3 or better, for Moreno to remain ahead of Arraez.
So for the sake of figuring out Lopez’s chances, it’s worth just comparing to Arraez, who is at .310 (with the fourth decimal place a 4 — .3104).
The key to this exercise becomes determining what it would take for Lopez to get above Arraez’s .3104.
Lopez enters the day at 191-for-627 — he has the most hits in the National League and that’s going to stay that way, as he has more at bats than either Arraez or Moreno.
The first check we’ve done, at 3-for-3, only gets Lopez to .308.
If Lopez goes 4-for-4, he gets to .309.
Even a 5-for-5 day only gets him to .3101, which wouldn’t be enough to pass Arraez if Arraez doesn’t play on Sunday.
Lopez would win the batting title if he goes 6-for-6, as that raises him smoothly to .311.
Nothing worse than 6-for-6 allows Lopez to pass Arraez.
Now if the Phillies were to give Arraez an at bat, and he were to make an out, that would change the equation.
An Arraez pinch-hit out would lower his average to .3099. Lopez could then beat him at 5-for-5.
And if Arraez went 0-for-2 or worse, Lopez could beat him at 4-for-4.
It’s a longshot, but Lopez isn’t totally out of it.
Otto Lopez Career Year
Two years ago for the Marlins, Lopez hit .270.
Last year, he was down at .246.
And this year, he’ll finish above .300.
That’s quite the feat for Lopez, who also made the All-Star Game. Even without a batting title, he can feel secure in knowing that he had a special season.
How Marlins’ Otto Lopez Can Win NL Batting Title