The Milwaukee Brewers are World Series champions, but there’s no time to wait around.
The MLB offseason is here, and it’s a weird one with a lockout looming on Dec. 1. That could require some quick free agent decisions in November.
That brings to the forefront Dustin May, the right-handed pitcher who wasn’t the most pivotal member of the Brewers but was also a solid contributor throughout the year.
May is a free agent, and starting pitchers with impressive pedigrees and solid stuff often attract attention.
The Brewers could potentially want May back, but even in a pretty full pitching free agent market, May’s underlying metrics could make it tough.
The latest insight here comes from The Athletic’s Eno Sarris, who does great work at analyzing the pitches an individual throws and what that should mean going forward.
And for Sarris, May is an intriguing free agent.
Dustin May Free Agent Update
Sarris chose to write about four “intriguing” free agent starting pitcher who could end up being “bargains” — and May was one of them.
“There are two domestic free agents who will be under 30 years old next season and have above-average stuff and command as judged by Stuff+ and Location+,” Sarris writes, referring to a couple of his metrics for measuring pitch performance. “One is Trevor Rogers, and he’s projected to get a nine-figure deal in most spots. The other is Dustin May, who likely won’t get half that.”
In some ways, it already checks out that the Brewers had May. Clearly, they recognized his talent.
“There are also some interesting changes May made last year that didn’t show up in the ERA but could be intriguing,” Sarris writes. “For one, he got his arm angle back up to where it was years ago when he was a top prospect with the Dodgers. That improved the vertical movement on his cutter and four seamer, which, in turn, allowed him to focus on the four-seamer, cutter and curveball more versus lefties. Results on the field matter, too, so this isn’t an argument that May should get the same money as Rogers. But May is more interesting than his ERA over the last two years.”
Someone could get a steal with May, although teams will also have at least some alignment with what Sarris has discovered.
Brewers Chances to Keep Dustin May
In truth, the Brewers’ chances of keeping Dustin May likely depend on his market.
If there’s a big team out there that wants to pay May handsomely because they believe in his underlying metrics, Milwaukee may not be able to keep up in such a bidding war.
But if May flies under the radar again, the Brewers could retain a guy who just enjoyed a World Series run with them.
Either way, May has a chance to be better next year than he was this year. That’s what the data says.
Brewers Get Dustin May Free Agent Update