The Milwaukee Brewers currently have the best record in baseball at 78-49.
While a huge part of that has been their outstanding pitching staff led by NL Cy Young frontrunner Jacob Misiorowski, their offense has been surprisingly good.
The most unexpected piece of that offense has been first baseman and outfielder Jake Bauers.
With a team-high 22 home runs and a .505 slugging percentage, Bauers has had an incredible age-30 breakout season.
Bauers is a free agent at the end of this season, and Tim Britton of The Athletic explored what a new contract for him would look like.
What Would a Milwaukee Brewers Contract Look Like For Bauers?
The San Diego Padres drafted Bauers in the seventh round of the 2013 MLB Draft out of high school.
He would make his debut with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018. Bauers would bounce around with the Rays, Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees before landing with Milwaukee. Before 2025, he never had an OPS above .700, nor did he have a positive career bWAR.
However, he broke out in the second half of 2025 with a .305/.414/.475 slash line in 27 games before injury.
This year, he has followed that up with an exceptional year and career-best 2.7 bWAR through 114 games.
Britton believes that Bauers could cash in this winter.
“The Bauers comp that actually makes the most sense came last winter, when Ryan O’Hearn signed his two-year, $29.5 million deal with the Pirates,” Britton wrote. “And good news for Bauers: O’Hearn has made that look like a bargain. The market is paltry for first basemen this winter, so Bauers has a shot at landing that kind of deal, especially if he performs well against quality pitching come October.”
That would be a great bargain for any team, but more importantly would be huge for Bauers. Britton compares Bauers’ situation to Daniel Murphy and jokes that if he has the same playoff impact with the Milwaukee Brewers heading into free agency, he could very well top that figure.
Does He Deserve it?
He’s certainly having a breakout season, but is it worth giving a big free agent contract based on one good season? More importantly, is it sustainable?
The answer is yes. While Bauers is one of the worst defenders in baseball with -10 Outs Above Average, per Baseball Savant, his offense more than makes up for it.
His xwOBA is .370, in the 93rd percentile, meaning his breakout is not due to luck. He hits the ball extremely hard with a 53.3% Hard-Hit rate (97th percentile). Bauers’ hard-hit rate is sustainable because of his high bat speed in the 95th percentile.
While he strikes out a lot, he also walks a ton and doesn’t chase (both in the 96th percentile).
Because of these factors, Bauers can and will get a sizable pay raise in free agency. However, the downside is that with the impending lockout, he may not get paid until his age-32 season if the dispute lasts the entire season.
If that’s the case, Bauers would likely opt for a maximum of two years on a contract due to his age and limited sample size. That way, he can get a bigger raise in his second trip to free agency.
Either way, Bauers can earn a big payday if he continues on this pace.
Brewers Breakout Bat in Line for $30 Million-Plus Payday With Playoff Impact