The Minnesota Twins rotation will be without one of their best starters for the foreseeable future. Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports that right-hander Pablo Lopez will undergo Tommy John surgery.
That is devastating news for the Twins, as they’ll be without their No. 2 starter until the 2027 season is already underway. The rehab process from Tommy John surgery takes 12 to 16 months.
Since Lopez is a starter, it’s more likely to be towards the latter as he’ll need to ramp up on a minor league rehab assignment. That places a potential return date somewhere between April and June 2027, assuming no setbacks. 2027 marks the final season of a four-year, $73 million extension that Lopez signed with the Twins.
In the meantime, they’ll have to scramble to put a starting rotation together with the 2026 season just around the corner.
Pablo Lopez Injury Opens Door for Deadline Acquisition
The decision to hold onto staff ace Joe Ryan looks more prescient in hindsight. He will likely be their Opening Day starter.
Simeon Woods-Richardson, Bailey Ober, and Zebby Matthews were all likely to slot into the Twins rotation going into the season. The three pitchers will sit in the middle of the rotation, hoping to give Derek Shelton some stability. Ober is a solid innings-eater while Woods-Richardson and Matthews established themselves last season.
However, the one pitcher who could benefit the most in Lopez’s absence is Taj Bradley.
The Twins acquired Bradley last July as the headliner in the Griffin Jax deal. The right-hander owns a 4.86 ERA in 75 appearances (73 starts). His poor results made him expendable in Tampa Bay’s rotation.
Based on his Statcast metrics for 2025, his ability to limit hard contact stands out. Bradley gave up a 39.9% hard-hit rate and a 7.2% barrel rate, which sit in the 55th and 67th percentile among MLB pitchers.
The expected metrics also think Bradley did better than his 5.05 ERA for the 2025 season. These metrics take into account batted-ball data, strikeout rate, and walk rate. Bradley gave up a .237 expected batting average and a 4.10 expected ERA. If he can pitch close to those numbers, he gives the Twins a needed boost in their rotation.
Twins Rotation Depth for the 2026 Season Without Pablo Lopez
With Lopez sidelined until next season, that’s going to create opportunities for the Twins to evaluate their depth. According to Roster Resource, Minnesota has seven starters currently on its 40-man roster that don’t project for its MLB rotation.
Mick Abel, the centerpiece in the Jhoan Duran trade, is an option. Connor Prelipp, Kendry Rojas, Andrew Morris, and Marco Raya were all ranked in the Top 15 on FanGraphs’ 2025 prospect list for the Twins.
Should the Twins take on further injuries or pull the trigger on a Joe Ryan trade at the deadline, they have a lot of young starters to evaluate. Minnesota will need to have a better idea of how these youngsters will perform by the time Lopez returns from surgery.
With Lopez out for the foreseeable future, it puts the Twins in a bind. However, it could be a blessing in disguise if it means their farm system can produce capable starters to set up their next contention cycle.
Twins Receive Devastating News on Injured $73 Million Starter