The New York Mets have officially missed out on bringing back José Quintana after he signed a one year deal with the Brewers Monday morning. So, with a top option to improve the rotation off the table, it’s time to dive into whether the current group is good enough: here’s a look at the potential starters.
Kodai Senga
Senga is the clear ace of this pitching staff and was phenomenal in his rookie season. He finished that year with a sub 3 ERA and was 99th percentile in pitching run value. His fastball, cutter, and “ghost fork” pitch combo is deadly and allows him to strike batters out among the best in the MLB, as represented by his 11 K/9 ratio. Despite his dominance, he missed nearly the entire 2024 season with a shoulder injury, propelling pre-existing questions about how well his shoulder would hold up from when he was signed out of Japan. He is definitely an ace-caliber arm, but doubts about his long-term availability are completely justified.
Sean Manaea
Last year, he had a much needed bounce back season where the Mets saw him lower his ERA almost a full point to 3.47 over 181.2 IP. While he was the anchor of the rotation last season, almost all his advanced numbers per Baseball Savant were around league average. In addition to the advanced numbers, he had a mediocre year in San Francisco in 2023. The season prior in San Diego, he fell completely flat, finishing in the 3rd percentile in pitching run value. Manaea is also dealing with a strained oblique and is expected to return in April. Based on his past performance, it’s safe for the Mets to expect quite a bit of regression from Manaea in 2025.
David Peterson
Next up, we have David Peterson, who made his MLB debut with the Mets in 2020. Similar to Manaea, he had a fantastic season in 2024 that saw him finish with a 2.90 ERA, despite an xERA of 4.59 and a below average Baseball Savant page. He has a career 4.08 ERA and his numbers fluctuate from being good to bad every other season. On top of that, he’s another guy with durability issues, as last season being the most innings he’s ever pitched at only 121. Similar to Manaea, Peterson appears likely to regress in 2025.
Clay Holmes
Holmes is the most intriguing lower end starter on the list, as he is transitioning from a bullpen role to a starting role. Since being traded to the Yankees in 2021, Holmes has been a high end reliever with a 2.69 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He has only ever pitched 70 innings in a season, and the Mets will be asking him to significantly increase that this year. While it’s a big ask, converted relievers are becoming less of a rarity in the MLB. A great example was last year’s AL Cy Young runner up and former Met, Seth Lugo. Lugo began his career as a starter, then was primarily a reliever from 2018-2022, before becoming a starter again. Holmes is definitely not a guarantee, but the recent success trend of similar players and his lights out off-speed pitches make him someone the Mets are crossing their fingers for.
Frankie Montas
Once regarded as one of the up-and-coming young pitchers in the MLB, Montas has struggled since being traded from the A’s in 2022. Last season he posted a 4.84 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. He missed almost the entire 2023 season with a shoulder injury and is currently out until late Spring with a strained lat. Injuries have derailed Montas’ career enough that it’s tough to feel confident in the Mets getting many quality innings from him this season.
Tylor Megill
Megill has bounced back and forth between the MLB and MiLB since 2021 and has a career 4.56 MLB ERA. Despite ups and downs, manager Carlos Mendoza appears confident in him making the rotation: “Tylor Megill is a guy that I’m really excited about this year…He should be a guy in this league and we’re counting on him.” Considering Montas’ and Manaea’s injuries, the Mets appear to be preparing Megill to start the year in the MLB rotation, despite his inconsistencies.
Paul Blackburn
The Mets acquired Blackburn before last year’s trade deadline. He is a back end starter with a career 4.83 ERA, who has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career.
Griffin Canning
Canning was an innings eater last season with 171 IP, but he had a 5.19 ERA and holds a career 4.78 ERA. The Mets brought him in as a depth piece and borderline starter.
José Ureña
Ureña recently signed to a minor league contract, and could compete for a starting role or be depth for the rotation. He finished 2024 with a 3.80 ERA for the Texas Rangers, pitching as both a starter and reliever. However, you’d have to look back to 2018 to find another season where he had a sub 5 ERA.
Is the Rotation Good Enough?
All in all, the Mets have some serious questions regarding their starting pitching. Senga is a star, but there are doubts surrounding his health. Manaea and Peterson have had quality seasons, but advanced numbers and past seasons reveal unreliability. Holmes is a wildcard: he has the talent, but is taking on the challenge of starting for the first time in his MLB career. Montas, Blackburn, Canning, Megill, and Ureña have underperformed too often to be counted on as anything but back end or depth rotation pieces.
The Mets made a serious error in not re-signing José Quintana, and it may very well come back to bite them. The rotation has a plethora of arms, but they’ve already sustained two injuries, multiple guys have legitimate durability concerns, and in reality, they lack the talent that most World Series teams have.
Mets Rotation may be in Trouble After Missing Out on José Quintana