The New York Yankees survived the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card round, and now the stakes only get higher. Their reward for advancing is a date with the Toronto Blue Jays in the Division Series—a matchup that comes with unfinished business after the Blue Jays edged the Yankees for the AL East crown on the season’s final day.
According to a panel of writers from The Athletic, the Yankees aren’t just ready for the challenge—they’re overwhelming favorites. In a staff-wide prediction piece, 92% of the experts picked New York to advance to the ALCS, leaving just a slim minority siding with Toronto.
Why Experts See the Yankees as Favorites
The consensus around the Yankees begins with Aaron Judge, who hasn’t yet delivered his signature October moment but looms over this series as the biggest difference-maker. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote that Judge’s power surge could decide against a Toronto staff that hasn’t lived up to expectations late in the season.
New York’s pitching, which looked shaky down the stretch, has also started to flip the narrative. Rookie sensation Cam Schlittler emerged against Boston with a dominant Game 3 performance, giving the Yankees a legitimate third weapon alongside Carlos Rodón and Max Fried. As Stephen Nesbitt put it, “No team in the majors did more damage in the regular season than the Yankees… after witnessing the star turn of Cam Schlittler, it’s hard not to like the Yankees’ top three starters.”
Questions about the bullpen and defense have quieted after the Wild Card round. The Yankees’ gloves held up against Boston, and the relief corps handled pressure innings that earlier in the year would have spelled disaster. That shift is why writers such as Tyler Kepner are confident New York’s October path looks much smoother than it did a few weeks ago.
Why the Blue Jays Are Being Doubted
The Blue Jays won the season series against New York, taking eight of the 13 matchups, and they did so by pressuring the Yankees’ defense in ways other teams couldn’t. Toronto holds home-field advantage, and Rogers Centre gave the Yankees trouble all year—New York lost six of seven games there during the regular season.
Even with that edge, most experts doubt Toronto can sustain its advantages once the postseason lights come on. Chad Jennings clarified: “I just don’t believe in the Blue Jays’ pitching staff. Their lineup is good, but I just don’t think they have the arms.”
Melissa Lockard noted that the Blue Jays might be able to pounce early with emotional energy at home, but she ultimately still leaned toward the Yankees as the better-balanced club. The problem for Toronto is that the bats may have to carry the weight. With Kevin Gausman struggling down the stretch, there’s skepticism about whether the Blue Jays can keep the Yankees’ deep lineup from flipping games in an inning or two.
The series has all the ingredients for fireworks: divisional bad blood, MVP-caliber talent, and October tension in two of the league’s rowdiest ballparks. But the prevailing belief among The Athletic’s staff is apparent—the Yankees’ momentum, star power, and pitching depth give them the edge.
Jon Greenberg summed it up best: “Judge earns his pinstripes with an MVP series.” If that happens, Toronto may find itself again watching its AL East rival celebrate on a bigger stage.
For now, The Athletic’s experts make it clear — 92% predict the Yankees will reach the ALCS.
Yankees Backed by Experts to Take Down Blue Jays in ALDS