The New York Yankees didn’t play on Thursday, but things got worse for them in the AL East Division anyway.
That’s because the Tampa Bay Rays played, and they won.
With the victory, the Rays hold a 5.0-game lead with only 10 games to play. It would require a massive effort by the Yanks to catch up.
And that specific mark, being five games up, has some history to it that bodes very well for the Rays and very poorly for the Yankees.
History Against Yankees
Teams with a five-game lead in a division in September rarely lose it.
In fact, of the 45 teams to hold a five-game lead in the AL East in September since 1969, 44 of them have won the division, according to Ryan Bass:
If the #Rays win and sweep today, they’ll increase their AL East lead to 5 games up on the #Yankees, which is a good omen.
Since 1969, 44 of 45 teams to hold a 5.0 game lead in the AL East at any point in September or October have won the division.
— Ryan Bass (@Ry_Bass) September 17, 2026
The Rays have a magic number of 6 to win the AL East after their win on Thursday.
There’s just one omen still in the Yankees’ favor: 1978.
The Red Sox began September that year with a 6.5-game lead in the division.
But that’s the year that the Yankees forced the Bucky Dent game, which of course the Yanks won, which is why “Bucky Dent game” has meaning to New York fans everywhere.
Could the Yankees pull off magic like that again? That’s certainly what they’ll be hoping. Based on records, winning the AL East this year would come with a first-round bye in the playoffs, which could prove quite valuable.
But the Rays keep doing their thing, which hasn’t given the Yankees any opportunity to make up ground. The Yanks haven’t played poorly this month. Tampa Bay has simply continued to play exceptionally well.
Schedule Provides One Hope
There’s one other thing that gives the Yankees a chance here: They still have to play the Rays for four games.
Starting on Tuesday, Sept. 22, the Yanks have a four-game set. That includes a doubleheader on that Tuesday.
While it seems unlikely the Rays would entirely butcher that series, the Yankees could really put the pressure on if they could pull off a doubleheader sweep or something of that nature. Then Tampa Bay would feel the Yankees coming up right behind them.
The Yankees have the pitching depth to handle a series with four games in three days that could define their season, so don’t write them off quite yet.
New York first has to take care of business in Arizona this weekend to have any chance of that mattering, though.
Yankees Don’t Have History on Their Side in AL East Division Standings