The Yankees and Red Sox are right back where they were one year ago.
New York will host Boston in the American League Wild Card Series, with all three games scheduled for Yankee Stadium thanks to the Yankees finishing the regular season with the better record. The matchup is an exact rematch of last year’s Wild Card round, when New York survived in three games before advancing to the AL Division Series.
And it took a memorable performance from Cam Schlittler to finish the job.
The rookie right-hander delivered eight scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts in the winner-take-all Game 3, giving the Yankees one of the most memorable postseason pitching performances in recent franchise history.
Now the rivals get another shot at each other.
The oddsmakers at BetOnline Sports & Casino have opened the Yankees as -160 favorites, while the Red Sox are +140 underdogs. Those odds imply roughly a 61.5% probability of New York winning the series before accounting for the bookmaker’s margin.
The Yankees have the home-field advantage and appear to have the more complete roster.
But Boston certainly has a path to revenge.
Yankees Have Enough Advantages to Win in Two Games
There is a reason the Yankees opened as the clear favorites.
Their biggest advantage could be sitting on the mound for Game 1.
Schlittler is no longer the inexperienced rookie who shocked Boston last October. He enters this postseason as the American League Cy Young favorite after going 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA during the regular season. The Yankees are trusting him to start the series rather than Max Fried, who will follow in Game 2.
That is an enormous luxury in a best-of-three series.
If Schlittler can replicate anything close to his 2025 performance against Boston, the Yankees could immediately put the Red Sox in a difficult position.
New York also won seven of the 13 meetings between these teams during the regular season, including taking three of four from Boston in their most recent series.
Then there is the offense.
The Yankees have plenty of power throughout the lineup, and Ben Rice enters October after hitting 41 home runs during the regular season. Aaron Judge remains the centerpiece, despite injury concerns, while players such as Cody Bellinger and George Lombard Jr. give New York additional ways to create offense.
Put it all together, and the Yankees don’t necessarily need three games.
If Schlittler delivers in Game 1 and New York’s offense takes advantage of its opportunities, the Yankees could end this rivalry rematch before Boston ever gets a chance to force a deciding game.
Red Sox Have the Pieces to Pull Off the Upset
Of course, Boston doesn’t have to look very far for evidence that a Yankees sweep is anything but inevitable.
The Red Sox already beat New York in the opening game of last year’s Wild Card Series.
Garrett Crochet dominated the Yankees in that contest, throwing 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball while striking out 11. Boston ultimately lost the series, but that performance demonstrated exactly how quickly a short postseason series can turn.
Boston also won seven of the 13 regular-season meetings against New York? No — the Yankees actually won that season series 7-6. But the Red Sox showed they could give New York plenty of trouble, including a four-game sweep at Fenway Park in June.
That matters because the Wild Card format leaves almost no room for a slow start.
Boston doesn’t need to be the better team over 162 games.
It needs to be better for two or three games.
If the Red Sox can somehow beat Schlittler in Game 1, the pressure immediately shifts to New York. Suddenly, the Yankees would be one loss away from elimination despite having home-field advantage.
And Boston has enough pitching and offensive firepower to make that scenario realistic.
This rivalry has produced plenty of October surprises over the years, and the Red Sox have already proven they can win in Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees may enter this rematch as the favorites, but Boston doesn’t need to dominate the series.
It simply needs to survive long enough to make the Yankees nervous.
Yankees Favored Over Red Sox in Highly Anticipated Wild Card Rematch