The New York Yankees have plenty to worry about before considering this offseason’s free agent class.
When it arrives, though, the Yanks will be at risk of losing at least one key pitcher from their current roster.
It’s a reality that’s at least worth analyzing right now, because free agency will arrive, and it’s always a fascinating part of the year, particularly for a team with big pockets like the Yankees.
It’s on baseball fans’ minds, too, because The Athletic’s Jim Bowden broke down his top-15 pending free agent pitchers, and there’s a Yankee on the list: David Bednar.
David Bednar Free Agent Outlook
Bednar is set up to be the best closer in free agency.
Having proven himself in a small market with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he’s now shown he can do it under the spotlight in the Bronx, too.
“Bednar, who will turn 32 in October, is the best closer in this class, as he’s pitched extremely well under the bright lights of New York City since being acquired from the Pirates at the deadline last season,” Bowden writes. “Since 2021, he’s posted an ERA under 2.70 every season except 2024, when he had a down year. Nearly two years removed from those struggles, that 2024 season looks like a significant outlier and he’s well-positioned to be a coveted free agent.”
The Yankees will have a decision to make, because relief pitching isn’t all that predictable.
Inherent Problem With Reliever Contracts
Relief pitching is the most unpredictable position in baseball. Because there are small sample sizes every season, it’s a bit harder to know what to expect year to year.
That doesn’t always apply to the elite closers, but there’s still more variability at most spots.
The other truth is that it’s easier to find a dominant reliever who isn’t yet a closer and turn him into a closer, at least easier than it might be to just pull a centerfielder out of thin air. There are lots of guys in modern baseball with good stuff.
Bednar has pitched well for so long, which means he probably won’t immediately fall off a cliff. But his status with the Yanks will likely depend on how big a contract Bednar wants.
If Bednar shoots for the stars and wants something like $20 million per year, it probably wouldn’t behoove the Yankees to be in a negotiation like that.
But if Bednar is closer to a $10 million per year cost, it’s probably worth it for the Yanks to try and get a deal done.
Of course, whatever happens the rest of September and October could matter for the outlook between Bednar and the Yankees.
For now, there are more late-game outs to get. Eventually, there’ll be a contract to figure out.
Yankees at Risk of Losing Key Pitcher