The Yankees rattled off a dominant, 9-0 win over the rival Boston Red Sox on Tuesday to put them a game away from the American League Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays, and while they still need to take one of the two remaining games against their rivals, their AL pennant odds took a major turn after the win.
For the first time since September 6th, when Aaron Judge was nearing a return, the Yankees now hold a 5% advantage over the Rays to win the American League on Kalshi. While the odds are purely speculative, it seems people are starting to rally behind the Bombers, who trailed the Rays 27.1% to 25.4% the morning of September 29th.
There’s Plenty Working in the Yankees’ Favor
Even though the Yankees didn’t start Judge or Giancarlo Stanton yesterday, the lineup looked perfectly fine without them, as slugger Ben Rice went 4-for-5 with two home runs (including a grand slam) and three extra base hits total while coming a triple shy of the cycle.
The rest of the lineup held up, too. Austin Wells, who was one of the worst hitters in the league statistically, surely appreciated the blank slate of the playoffs as he mashed an RBI single to get the scoring started in the second, and picked up an RBI on a sacrifice fly later in the game.
George Lombard Jr, who became the youngest Yankee player to start a playoff game since Mickey Mantle in 1952, went 3-for-4 with three singles.
With Roman Anthony potentially sidelined due to a flare up of his hand injury suffered in last night’s game, the Yankees will turn to Max Fried to try to sweep the Red Sox in the Wild Card series and continue their climb to the AL pennant.
What Could Sway the Yankees’ AL Pennant Odds?
It’s no secret that the Rays will posit the hardest test for the Yankees and their AL pennant odds. The Rays took the season series 7-6, and with three of a potential five ALDS games played at Tropicana Field, where the Rays played to a 110-win pace in 2026, the Yankees have their work cut out for them.
But in their 9-0 win, the Yankees didn’t have to use top relievers Brent Headrick and David Bednar, and still can turn to starters Will Warren or Carlos Rodon to eat up innings later in this series so they can go to Tampa well rested should they advance.
With Stanton activated, the Yankees could very well activate Judge if they feel he’s developed enough running strength in his injured calf muscle that has sidelined him for two weeks.
It’s well known, too, that the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays will face a weaker competition in the ALCS due to the way the bracket shaped out, and would be set for an ALCS matchup against either the White Sox, Guardians or Astros.
The Yankees notably faced the Guardians in the ALCS in 2024, when they made it to the World Series and lost to the Dodgers in five games.
Yankees Surge to Top of Kalshi’s AL Championship Odds After 9-0 Wild Card Rout