The Philadelphia Phillies are closing in on a postseason berth. They could clinch a spot as early as today, according to The Athletic‘s Matt Gelb. To do so, they’ll need to beat the Milwaukee Brewers and get a loss from either the San Diego Padres or the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Phillies’ magic number is currently at 2 after a 6-4 win over the Brewers. The most straightforward path is a Diamondbacks loss, which would eliminate them from postseason contention and is more likely to happen before midnight ET. But they certainly wouldn’t mind the Padres losing either.
The Phillies will still get external help for their postseason chances, which are at 99.3% according to FanGraphs Playoff Odds. The Diamondbacks and Padres play each other to close the season. So one of the two teams will get eliminated.
The two NL West teams are on the road, as they take on the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers, respectively. Their games will start long after the Phillies start theirs against the Brewers.
First pitch times for the three teams:
- MIL vs. PHI: 6:40 p.m. ET
- ARI vs. COL: 8:40 p.m. ET
- SDP vs. LAD: 10:10 p.m. ET
Phillies Start Aaron Nola With Postseason Spot on the Line
Philadelphia will send right-hander Aaron Nola to the mound for his final regular-season start of 2026. It will mark his most important start of the season.
Perhaps it’s a bit fitting that the Phillies’ hottest starter gets a chance to punch their postseason ticket. Nola has been stingy the last three months, pitching to a 2.92 ERA with 82 strikeouts and 29 walks over his last 83.1 innings. He’s gone at least five innings and allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last 10 starts.
That’s a far cry from where he was entering that stretch. Through June, the 33-year-old’s ERA was north of 6.00.
Much of his second-half success could easily be attributed to BABIP regression to the mean. His post-break BABIP sits at .261 compared to .325 before. His season BABIP is .299 through 31 starts, just 10 points higher than the MLB average (.289).
The Phillies will certainly hope that Nola’s BABIP continues to regress toward the league average. That’s fewer baserunners and a chance to put together one last quality start to punch their postseason ticket.
NL Wild Card Standings Update
The Phillies, Cubs, and Padres enter play on September 23 in a three-way tie with identical 87-70 records. The Cubs own both head-to-head tiebreakers while the Phillies just have the Padres.
As it currently stands, it’s Cubs 4, Phillies 5, and Padres 6. The Diamondbacks are on the periphery, but realistically they need
The Phillies will have to outplay the Cubs by a full game over the final five days of the season to host them in the Wild Card Series. They can’t control if the Chicago loses to the Marlins (2 games) or Red Sox (3 games). But they can control how they win against the Brewers and Rays.
This Wild Card race could come down to Game 162 on Sunday.
How the Philadelphia Phillies Can Clinch a Postseason Spot Today