The Philadelphia Phillies remain in the postseason picture, but their playoff situation leaves an important question. Can they still miss out?
Here’s a breakdown of the Phillies’ playoff scenarios, including what Philadelphia needs to clinch and what could leave them outside the postseason.
The Phillies can clinch a fifth straight playoff berth Thursday, but they need help from Arizona or San Diego.
Wednesday’s 4-1 loss to Milwaukee stalled their run to a National League wild-card berth, leaving Philadelphia tied with the Chicago Cubs for the second wild card.
The Phillies reached the World Series in 2022, the NLCS in 2023, then won consecutive NL East titles. They cannot win the division title, but they can make the playoffs for the fifth straight season — or miss the postseason for the first time since 2021, the final season of a 10-year drought.
Wednesday brought a 0-for-12 night with runners in scoring position, with 10 stranded. But Arizona and San Diego both won, so nobody clinched.
Philadelphia Phillies Clinching Scenarios for Thursday
The Phillies (87-71) host the Milwaukee Brewers at 6:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park, with Andrew Painter facing Bryse Wilson. Painter is 3-10 with a 5.59 ERA.
Two paths lead to a clinch. Beat the Brewers with Arizona losing at Colorado to the Rockies. Or a win over the Brewers combined with San Diego losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to MLB.com playoff big board.
Arizona plays first, visiting Colorado at 3:10 p.m. ET. A Diamondbacks loss cuts the Phillies’ magic number from 2 to 1 but does not clinch anything for Philadelphia alone, because Arizona owns the tiebreaker between the two teams, per The Athletic.
What if the Phillies don’t clinch a playoff spot on Thursday?
The magic number falls to 1 if the Phillies win and Arizona and San Diego win too, or if the Phillies lose and Arizona loses. It stays at 2 if Philadelphia loses and Arizona wins.
Following all this?
Arizona faces elimination Thursday if it loses and both the Cubs and Phillies win, according to Legion Report’s clinch scenarios.
The Tampa Bay Rays visit Citizens Bank Park for three games Friday through Sunday. Arizona then travels to San Diego for three, guaranteeing that one Phillies wild-card rival takes a loss in each game.
Philadelphia Phillies Wild Card Opponent if They Clinch
The best-of-three Wild Card Series opens Sept. 29, with the higher seed hosting every game. If the season ended before any games today, the Padres would hold the No. 4 seed, the Cubs No. 5 and the Phillies No. 6, according to the ESPN playoff tracker.
That No. 6 slot sends Philadelphia to Atlanta (93-65), the NL East champion. The winner would likely draw the Dodgers (97-61) in the NLDS.
A No. 5 finish would put the Phillies at Petco Park against San Diego, a team they beat all six times this season. A No. 4 finish means hosting the No. 5 club, probably the Cubs.
Chicago won the season series 6-1, so the Cubs take any two-team tiebreaker. In a three-way tie with San Diego, the order runs Cubs, Phillies, Padres.
A No. 5 seed at Wrigley Field followed by a Milwaukee NLDS ranks as the toughest path for Philadelphia.
The Phillies’ playoff odds sit near 97%, according to Baseball-Reference playoff odds. Four games remain, and the magic number still reads 2.
Philadelphia Phillies Playoff Scenarios: Can They Still Miss the Postseason?