The Philadelphia Phillies enter the last day of the 2026 MLB regular season controlling their playoff destiny.
If you had offered them that opportunity before the season began, they surely would’ve taken it.
At the same time, they likely wouldn’t have wanted it to happen like this.
The Phillies are on the verge of a collapse that would almost surely prompt major change in Philadelphia.
They’ve been in the driver’s seat all week, but they haven’t closed the door. They’ve allowed the Arizona Diamondbacks back in the picture.
The Phillies could’ve clinched the third-and-final NL Wild Card spot on Saturday night, because Arizona lost to the Padres. But the Phillies also lost, to the Tampa Bay Rays.
Philadelphia has dropped both games to begin its three-game series against the Rays that will conclude on Sunday.
If they had won just one of those games, based on the fact that the Diamondbacks have split with the Padres, the Phillies would already be in the playoffs.
Instead, the Phillies have to play through the pressure on the final day of the season.
It won’t be an easy scenario, either.
The Phillies send Zack Wheeler to the mound, which is great news. But the Rays counter with an All-Star of their own, Nick Martinez.
The Rays are already locked into the No. 1 seed in the American League, so they don’t really have anything to play for. But they also have a first-round bye, so they don’t necessarily need to rest a bunch of guys, either.
Still, the Phillies are the team with everything on the line in this series, and they haven’t come through yet.
Phillies Playoff Scenarios
The Phillies simply need to win on Sunday to get in.
Because they hold a one-game edge on the Diamondbacks, Philadelphia removes all the other noise by picking up one final victory.
With a win, the Phillies hold off the Diamondbacks no matter what Arizona does in San Diego.
It’s with a Phillies loss that things get interesting.
If the Phillies lose, Arizona still has the door open for them — and if the Diamondbacks then win over the Padres, they’d leapfrog the Phillies into the postseason.
They would finish with tied records in that scenario, but Arizona holds the tiebreaker.
Phillies-Diamondbacks Tiebreaker
The Diamondbacks hold the season tiebreaker between these clubs.
The tie isn’t broken by head-to-head record, because these teams split their season series 3-3.
It goes to the next option, intra-division record — which is a team’s mark against its own division foes. The Diamondbacks did better at that this season than the Phillies.
Because Arizona has the tiebreaker, this race hasn’t been settled yet. The Phillies could still complete a brutal collapse — but there’s still one day to ensure that they don’t.
Phillies’ Collapse 1 Game From Missing Playoffs