The Philadelphia Phillies still control their own destiny to make the 2026 MLB playoffs.
That’s the positive way to look at things after the Phillies lost 5-1 on Thursday night to the Milwaukee Brewers to make everything just a bit more interesting.
The Phillies will be at home for the final three games of the regular season as they host the American League-leading Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
There are still a couple of paths in which the Phillies miss the postseason altogether. They’ll be hoping to avoid any such fate.
Phillies Playoff Scenarios
The Phillies’ playoff chances, if they struggle this weekend, will be tied in with those of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Arizona is in San Diego to close the season with a three-game series against the Padres.
Entering Friday, the Phillies hold a two-game lead on Arizona — but the Diamondbacks do hold the tiebreaker, which means a two-game swing would be disaster for Philadelphia.
That means the simplest way for the Phillies to get into the playoffs for sure is:
- Phillies win two (or more) games against the Rays to clinch a playoff spot.
They also would get in if:
- Diamondbacks lose two (or more) games to the Padres to clinch Phillies a playoff spot.
If the Phillies don’t win two games of the three-game set, though, things get interesting.
You’ve then got these possibilities, each of which would still work for the Phillies:
- Phillies go 1-2 but Diamondbacks only go 2-1 or worse
- Phillies go 0-3 but Diamondbacks only go 1-2 or worse
In both of those above bullet points, the Phillies still get in, because the Diamondbacks don’t make up the two-game gap.
The only two record margins that would doom the Phillies are if they go 1-2 and the Diamondbacks go 3-0, or if the Phillies go 0-3 and the Diamondbacks go 2-1 (or better).
In a three-game series, especially in these two cases where the opposition is also a quality opponent, anything really could happen.
How Rays’ Playoff Position Helps Phillies
At least one thing may work out in the Phillies’ favor. If there was ever a time to play the Rays, it’s this weekend.
They’ve already clinched everything there is to clinch in the American League, so they won’t be pushing it too hard with their key players, you wouldn’t think.
The Rays will have a first-round bye, so they don’t have to rest guys too much since that opportunity is still coming. But there will likely be a bit more playing it safe in the approach of Tampa Bay.
That could only help the Phillies as they try to get wins against one of the best teams in the sport while holding off the on-charging Diamondbacks.
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