The San Diego Padres have never shied away from aggressive spending, but Bleacher Report recently highlighted how that ambition could come with a steep long-term price. In its deep dive on MLB contracts most likely to become financial headaches by 2028, two Padres stars landed near the very top of the list—not because of what they’re doing now, but because of what the next five to eight years could look like.
Bleacher Report’s framework focused strictly on cash owed beginning in 2028, including deferred payments, rather than luxury-tax math or present-day value. Viewed through that lens, San Diego stands out as one of the most exposed franchises in baseball, with massive commitments tied to players entering or already in their mid-30s.
Manny Machado’s Defensive Decline Raises Uncomfortable Questions
Manny Machado remains one of the most consistent hitters in the sport. Over the past two seasons, he’s continued to post strong OPS marks, pile up extra-base hits, and provide middle-of-the-order production that justifies his star billing. Offensively, there are a few signs that Machado is falling off a cliff.
The problem, as Bleacher Report outlined, is everything else tied to his $40 million annual salary beginning in 2028. Machado will be 35 years old that season, with six years remaining on his deal. While his bat has aged well so far, his defense has not. Once an elite third baseman, Machado’s Statcast metrics have taken a sharp turn in the wrong direction. After posting strong Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value marks earlier in his Padres tenure, he slipped into negative territory in 2025 and led National League third basemen in errors.
That decline matters because defensive erosion often accelerates in a player’s mid-30s. San Diego could eventually move Machado into a full-time designated hitter role, especially given the lack of a permanent DH solution on the roster. But paying $40 million per year for a DH—even a very good one—compresses roster flexibility and magnifies every dip in offensive production.
Machado may still provide value well into his late 30s, but the margin for error is razor thin at that salary level. Any offensive regression would make the contract feel painful long before it expires.
Xander Bogaerts’ Decline Has Already Arrived
If Machado’s contract is about looming risk, Xander Bogaerts represents something more alarming: a decline that has already started. Bogaerts will be 35 in 2028 with six years remaining on his 11-year deal, and Bleacher Report ranked his contract as the single most concerning on the list.
The statistical drop-off has been stark. In the five seasons before signing his mega deal, Bogaerts was a perennial All-Star caliber hitter, combining power, on-base skills, and run production at a level that justified MVP consideration. Over the past two seasons, that player has largely disappeared. His OPS has cratered, his power output has been nearly cut in half, and his overall value has fallen into borderline league-average territory.
Unlike other middle infielders on long-term deals, Bogaerts doesn’t have the benefit of still playing at a high level while aging curves loom. He’s already producing far below the standards set by his contract, and there are still eight years remaining. While his defense has been more stable in San Diego than it was late in his Red Sox tenure, it hasn’t been enough to offset the offensive decline.
For the Padres, this is where long-term financial strain becomes unavoidable. Bogaerts’ deal doesn’t just limit payroll flexibility—it shapes roster decisions, positional planning, and the club’s ability to pivot if contention windows close sooner than expected.
Bleacher Report’s conclusion isn’t that San Diego’s spending was reckless. It’s that the Padres bet heavily on stars aging well, and two of those bets now look increasingly fragile. Machado’s contract carries future risk. Bogaerts already carries consequences. Together, they represent the clearest warning sign that the Padres’ win-now era may come with a long and expensive aftermath.
Padres Facing Two Costly Long-Term Contract Problems