The San Diego Padres and Fernando Tatis Jr. can rest knowing the long home run drought is finally over. Against the Washington Nationals, Tatis crushed a Foster Griffin fastball 451 feet for his first home run of the season.
Fernando Tatis Jr. CRUSHES one 451 feet 💥
The 2026 season has been a struggle for the Padres’ star player. Coming into the game, Tatis was slashing .268/.345/.368 with a 93 wRC+ on the season. The lack of slug is particularly eye-opening, given his track record at the plate.
Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Homer Drought Finally Ends
That first home run should be a huge relief for Tatis, who’s in the worst season of his career offensively. At 451 feet, it was the longest homer he hit in five seasons, per MLB researcher Sarah Langs. The ball was also blasted with an exit velocity of 114.0 MPH, making it the hardest-hit ball since the 2024 season.
The power drought had been a surprise for a player who had homered at least 20 times in every 162-game season in his career. In the last three seasons, he’s slugged 71 long balls and at least 21 in each season.
Tatis’ homer drought became a talking point in the Padres media and social media alike. Nick Castellanos, who used Tatis’ bat to slug a game-tying home run on May 10. The topic came up in the postgame scrum with Castellanos, who chided the reporter for asking that “rude” question.
With Tatis’ finally on the home run board, that topic can finally be put to rest. And with that weight off his shoulders, that could propel the star outfielder into a hot streak. With the Padres in the thick of a Wild Card race, holding the top spot entering play on May 30, it’s a welcome sight.
What Caused Tatis’ Home Run Drought?
When a perennial 20-25 home run hitter has a deep power slump, it’s important to dig deep into underlying metrics. The main culprit appears to be a significant increase in ground ball rate.
After sitting under 50% in every season of his career, it has jumped to 54.2% entering play on May 30. It’s also reflected in his Pull Air rate, accounting for only 6.5% of his batted balls. While Tatis is not a natural pull hitter, his batted ball data is not conducive for slug.
Taking into account strictly his batted ball data, the expected metrics also pointed to a lack of slug. Tatis entered play with a .279 expected batting average and a .394 expected slugging percentage. That’s higher than his actual numbers, but not significantly. However, the expected stats don’t account for batted ball direction, which is the primary culprit behind Tatis’ power drought.
This is a topic that Marquee Sports analyst Lance Brozdowski touched on. For a hitter like Tatis, who ranks in the 87th percentile for bat speed (75.2 MPH), the low pull rate has a bigger effect on his slug. Brozdowski estimated that every percentage point in pulled fly ball rate translates to roughly 2.4 points of slugging at Tatis’ bat speed.
Comparing Tatis’ 2025 performance with 2026, there is a significant decline in the pulled fly ball rate. In 2025, he pulled 22.9% of his fly balls. The following year, 10.7%.
Putting those into Brozdowski’s quick model, that’s a 29-point decrease in slugging percentage. However, Tatis’ 2026 dropoff in both slugging and expected slugging percentage is steeper than that.
As the season wears on, the Padres would like to see their young star add more slug to their lineup. If he can get closer to his 2025 metrics, they have a strong chance of qualifying for the postseason again.
Padres Star Fernando Tatis Jr. Ends Stunning Home Run Drought