We’re just a day away from playoff baseball, which will begin with some juicy Wild Card round matchups. Of course, Yankees-Red Sox is atop the average baseball fan’s list, but the legendary Cubs franchise is back in the postseason after a five-year absence. The San Diego Padres will be coming into Chicago after last year’s playoff run ended with the Friars being shut out for 24 consecutive innings. So, what are the keys for the Padres to get back to the NLDS this time around?
Fernando and Friends to Stay Hot
While the Padres‘ lineup fell flat last October, there was one bat who carried San Diego’s lineup: Fernando Tatis Jr. In seven playoff games last year, Tatis put up a .423 average with a 1.500 OPS and four home runs. The Friar Faithful has become accustomed to Tatis playing his best in the brightest moments, and he will absolutely need to do that again this Fall.
Fernando has had his ups and downs in 2025, but he ended the 2025 season in the 90th percentile or higher in batting, fielding, and base running value. On top of that, he closed the regular season out on fire with a .976 OPS over his past 15 games. His power appears to have come back, and the Padres need that to be the case if their season is going to continue.
Not unlike last year, the Friars’ lineup has been extremely streaky. Manny Machado had a horrendous August and September, but finally had a great day at the plate in game 162. Jackson Merrill started the year strong, but injuries and inconsistency at the plate had nearly every Padres fan chalking up his year as a sophomore slump. Then, he exploded in September with seven homers and a .946 OPS, and his numbers this year actually ended up being pretty good.
If the Padres have World Series aspirations, then Machado must turn it around, while Tatis and Merrill need to continue to swing the bat as they have. The stars must show up.
Padres Starting Pitching Holds Their Own
Yeah, I’m looking at you, Dylan Cease. While it hasn’t been announced, the Padres pitchers for games two and three are expected to be Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish, with Michael King coming out of the bullpen. Both Cease and Darvish have struggled to keep the ball in the park this season and have been inconsistent, to put it mildly.
Cease was one of the biggest reasons for the Padres‘ early playoff exit last year, as he imploded against the rival Dodgers. In four playoff games throughout his career, Cease has a scary 12.91 ERA. Pair that with Cease having a 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, and it’s easy to see why fans are skeptical of him getting the nod.
Darvish, on the other hand, has a career 3.71 ERA and has been spectacular in the big spots during his Padres tenure. Unfortuantely, Darvish battled the injury bug early this season and put up an unimpressive 5.38 ERA over 15 starts.
It may be unfair to expect quality starts from these two, but they must at least keep them in the game. Another Cease collapse could very well end San Diego’s season.
Must Win Game 1
Because of the pitching question marks after Pivetta, game one is a must-win. Sure, you could have an improbable comeback similar to when the Padres pulled off miraculous back-to-back wins against the Cardinals in 2020, but this Cubs team is much better. San Diego is the underdog for a reason. If the Padres go down on Tuesday, it’ll be more than an uphill battle for them to win the series.
Nick Pivetta needs to shove, and the bats need to look like they did against Arizona, or the Padres‘ season will likely be over before the weekend.
The 3 Biggest Keys for the Padres to Beat the Cubs