Last night, the San Diego Padres overcame a 6-0 first-inning deficit to beat the Miami Marlins. While it took more than just one guy to pull off the comeback, Luis Arraez was one of the biggest reasons the Padres won. He went 3-5 with a double and two RBIs, and flashed his glove with a handful of snazzy defensive plays.
The Padres traded for Arraez last May, and his tenure has been a successful one thus far. Dennis Lin of The Athletic was recently asked in a mailbag if there’s a chance the Padres re-sign Luis Arraez.
“I still think there’s a decent chance he stays in San Diego,” responded Lin. “While he’s one of the most polarizing baseball players in recent history, the contact-driven Padres clearly value his unique skill set, his buoyant personality and his willingness to share his wealth of baseball knowledge. Maybe free agency, if Arraez is allowed to get there, will reveal more bidders than expected. Maybe not. If it’s the latter, I could see the Padres gladly retaining him with a reasonable contract.”
As many would expect, it’s tough to tell how big a push AJ Preller and the Padres front office will make to re-sign Arraez.
Why the Padres Should Re-Sign Arraez
Hitting is contagious. Luis Arraez is a three-time batting champ and nicknamed “the sprinkler” for a reason. The dude can flat out hit. Arraez strikes out and whiffs the least amount in the MLB, while he squares up the baseball at the highest rate in the league. If the Padres decide to bring Arraez back, it’s very obviously because of what he does at the plate.
In a league where it’s all about power, launch angle, and hard-hit rate, Arraez does the exact opposite. For many teams, that’d be a huge turn-off, but Lin even states above that “the contact-driven Padres” value his abilities. It has been clear that this team wants a deep lineup that’s contract-oriented since both Luis Arraez and Mike Shildt arrived in San Diego. There’s no better way to continue to implement this style of strategy than to keep Arraez in Brown and Gold.
Why the Padres Should NOT Re-Sign Arraez
Well, I brought up Arraez’s tool: contact hitting. Unfortunately, the reason not to bring him back is due to all the other tools. Arraez is a below-average baserunner, hits for minimal power, and is typically graded as one of the worst fielders in the sport. In terms of fielding, I’ll give him some slack as he hasn’t committed an error this year and has made some terrific picks at first base. Still, he’s small and his range lands him at the 1st percentile in fielding run value.
What is his Contract Value?
This is where it gets interesting. According to Spotrac, Arraez is expected to receive a 9-year, $154 million deal. With many teams expected to have little value in his skill set, this number feels high. Keep in mind, he’s already been traded twice in his big-league career. In a league where the majority of teams value power and wins above replacement (WAR), Arraez is a rare breed of ballplayer.
His market may be the hardest to predict in the MLB. Maybe this Spotrac projection is correct, and we see Arraez get a similar deal. But, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him sign a 4-5 year deal with a similar AAV to what he makes now ($14 million). The range of deals Arraez could land is quite literally the opposite of his fielding range.
If his market turns out to be a roughly 5-year, $75 million deal, San Diego should consider locking him up. If it’s what Spotrac predicts, there’s virtually no chance the Padres will bring him back.
The Odds of the Padres Re-Signing Batting Champ Luis Arraez