It took the San Diego Padres quite a long time to make a splash this past free agency. They were expected to lose a handful of free agents and they certainly took a hit. Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, Tanner Scott, Kyle Higashioka, Donavon Solano, and Martín Pérez were all key contributors who signed elsewhere, with the only major leaguer brought back being Elias Diaz.
With ownership problems and expected payroll cut, the majority of Padres fans were frustrated after watching their team fall apart and eventually lose in game 5 of the NLDS to the World Series champs. Some veterans such as Jason Heyward, Kyle Hart, Connor Joe, and Gavin Sheets had been signed, but the team hadn’t made any big time deals. After an offseason of uncertainty, AJ Preller made a big spash on February 17th by signing Nick Pivetta to a 4-year $55 million contract. After a month of baseball, it’s clear how impactful that deal is proving to be for this team.
Pivetta’s Start to 2025
When Pivetta was brought in, the expectation was for him to be the Padres’ #4 starter behind Michael King, Dylan Cease, and Yu Darvish. Pivetta was coming off of two solid seasons with the Red Sox where he posted a total of 3.9 fWAR and had xERAs under 4 in both seasons. The thought was if he could continue to put up those exact numbers, the Padres would be in business and have one of the deepest starting rotations in the sport.
Instead, Pivetta has been even better than expected. So far, he holds a 1.78 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 35.1 innings pitched. On top of that he is 100th (yes, 100th percentile) in pitching run value this season. Remember, we are only 33 games into the Padres season, so there’s plenty of time for his numbers to return to normal. Still, the Padres have some factors that support Pivetta having the best season of his career.
Two big reasons for this: his home ballpark and new pitching coach. His home ballpark is now Petco Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the MLB. In Boston, he was pitching in one of the least friendly, Fenway Park. Additionally, Pivetta now gets to work with pitching guru, Ruben Niebla. Niebla was a longtime member of the Guardians coaching staff that always seemed to have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. In San Diego, he has been able to follow that up with similar success. Pivetta is in an awesome spot for success.
Pivetta’s contract
Outside of the phenomenal play, Pivetta is a steal for Padres because of his contract. The Padres managed to negotiate a unique deal that has him taking home just $4 mil this year. That is an absurdly low number for what he has and will continue to provide for the rotation. Next year, he will make $19 mil with an opt-out after 2026. If he opts in, he will make $14 mil in 2027 and $18 mil in 2028. Time will tell if Pivetta will opt out, but either way this is an absolute bargain for the Friars.
It will be difficult for Pivetta to maintain the numbers he had in April for the duration of the season. Still, a career season seems expected, and is not without precedent. Last season Michael King broke out and Dylan Cease had bounce back seasons where they both finished top 10 in Cy Young voting. Nick Pivetta is next in line for a massive breakout that is already happening before our eyes.
The Padres Appear to have Made the Best Signing in Free Agency