It wasn’t that long ago that St. Louis Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado was one of the best all-around players in baseball. A platinum glove defender with elite power, Arenado was the kind of player franchises built around. In 2025, the reality is starkly different: Arenado isn’t just stuck in a slump—he’s trending toward untradeable.
The Power Is Gone—and He Knows It
Arenado has always been honest, but this quote he gave John Denton of MLB.com—“I don’t know if it’s coming back or not”—was jarring after being moved to the sixth spot in the Cardinals’ lineup.
The 33-year-old has just four home runs in nearly two months of play, and his .703 OPS is on pace to be the worst of his 13-year career. His barrel rate (3.4%) and exit velocity (86.8 mph) are well below league average. He’s not just struggling—he’s fading.
And that’s not just our interpretation. It’s Arenado’s, too.
The Weight of His Contract
Arenado is owed $35 million this season and has two more years of guaranteed money after that. For a player producing like a league-average third baseman, that’s a significant financial commitment. Last year, the Cardinals reportedly shopped him, and while Arenado used his no-trade clause to block a deal to Houston, it’s unclear if that same clause would even be tested again. His value is no longer strong enough to compel contenders to eat the contract, especially with younger, cheaper options readily available.
What Could the Cardinals Get in a Trade Now? Not Much
Let’s be clear: even if the Cardinals eat salary, they’re not getting a top-100 prospect for Arenado. If a deal happens, it’s more likely to resemble a contract dump with a lottery ticket prospect attached. Think like the Red Sox moving Carl Crawford or the Yankees shedding Josh Donaldson—an expensive exit more than a blockbuster.
At this point, the only absolute fits for Arenado are teams desperately needing veteran leadership at third base with no internal options and deep pockets. The Mariners could kick the tires if they stay in contention. Maybe even the Guardians if they’re willing to absorb salary for a stabilizing force. But these are “if-everything-goes-right” scenarios. And everything’s going wrong right now.
Not Just About Numbers—It’s About Impact
When Arenado was at his peak, he impacted games on both sides. Even when the bat slumped, the glove was always there. But in 2025, the defense hasn’t been enough to cover up the offensive crater. And worse, he’s come up small in big moments. Recently, he’s had multiple chances to flip games late and failed, fouling out twice in key spots against the Phillies and Royals.
The bat speed hasn’t returned, the bat path is long, and the confidence appears shaken. Even when he gets ahead in counts, pitchers are not afraid to challenge him.
Arenado Deserves Credit, But Baseball Is Brutal
To his credit, Arenado asked to be moved down in the order. He’s facing his struggles head-on. And few players have earned the respect he has in St. Louis. But baseball is ruthless, and reputations only get you so far. His decline mirrors players like Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera in their final years—legacy stars stuck in contracts they can’t live up to.
What Happens Next?
The Cardinals are playing good baseball without much help from Arenado. As they climb in the standings, a complicated conversation is looming. If they plan to be buyers at the deadline, Arenado could become a subtraction by necessity. His name carries weight, but not in the trade market. And that’s the problem.
In today’s MLB, teams don’t trade for names. They trade for upside. And right now, there’s little evidence Arenado has any left.
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