Team USA’s World Baseball Classic fate will be decided Wednesday.
In the top of the sixth inning, Italy took a 6-0 lead. That means to win, Mexico must score at least seven runs — which in turn means that Team USA will advance regardless of the Italy vs. Mexico winner, as explained below.
Team USA faces a humiliating elimination from the World Baseball Classic without even reaching the quarterfinals, and now must rely on the result of Wednesday’s Mexico vs. Italy game to survive. The good news for Team USA, though there isn’t much of it, is that there are multiple scenarios that would still see the American stars advance.
Team USA entered the WBC as heavy favorites, with Samurai Japan as a distant second. Some commentators called the USA lineup — featuring such greats as three-time American League MVP Aaron Judge, two-time National League MVP Bryce Harper, 60-home run hitter Cal Raleigh, and Kyle Schwarber who hit 56 homers last season — the greatest ever assembled.
Who Has Team USA Beaten So Far?
But a stunning 8-6 loss to Italy on Tuesday has now made it possible, even likely, that Team USA will not advance out of the round-robin pool-play stage of the WBC tournament — a stunning and embarrassing reversal for a team that set out to, in the pre-tournament words of NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes, “assert our dominance over everyone else.”
“We’re America,” Skenes said before the tournament. “That’s what we do.”
And indeed, that is exactly what Team USA did in the early going against clearly lower-level opponents, blowing out Brazil 15-5 and Great Britain 9-1 before surviving a scare from Team Mexico on Monday. But the Americans won in the end, 5-3.
And then came Italy.
Now what happens for Team USA?
Where Does Team USA Stand Now?
Team USA has now completed its schedule in the pool play round, and sits in second place in Pool B with a 3-1 record. The undefeated Italian squad leads the group with three wins, but must face 2-1 Mexico tonight, Wednesday, March 11.
The result of that game will determine Team USA’s fate — but it’s not as simple as win-or-lose.
Under the WBC format, the top two teams in each of the four pools advance to the quarterfinals, where the tournament switches to single-elimination play. After the shocking defeat to Italy, Team USA could still win Pool B, but could also finish in third place, thanks to the WBC’s complicated tiebreaker scenarios, with an early return for players back to their MLB spring training camps as the only reward.
What Are the Scenarios For Team USA to Advance?
In a two-way tie, under WBC tiebreaker rules, the team that won the direct, head-to-head game between the two deadlocked teams advances. But a win by Mexico over Italy tonight would produce a three-way tie, with USA, Mexico, and Italy at 3-1. And that’s where things get complicated.
Here are the four tiebreakers, in order, according to CBS Sports:
1. Lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied.
Lowest quotient of fewest earned runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied.
Highest batting average in games in that round between the teams tied.
A drawing of lots.
What does that mean for Team USA? Nat Gordon of the Boston Red Sox podcast Play Tessie explained in a social media post.
Italy wins: Italy + USA advance
Mexico wins and scores 6 or more runs: Mexico + USA advance
Mexico wins and scores less than 5 runs: Mexico + Italy advance
Mexico wins and scores exactly 5 runs: Mexico advances, final spot down to earned runs per inning played against tied opponents, and if that is equal then it’s down to batting average in those games, and if that’s equal it’s drawing.
If tonight’s game goes to extra innings, Team USA’s chances decrease, because Mexico’s ratio of runs to defensive outs would also go down. So for Team USA, either an Italy victory or a Mexican win with Team Mexico scoring at least 5 runs should put the Americans through to the quarterfinal round — though a Mexico win with exactly 5 runs makes the situation more complicated.
Team USA WBC Survival Looks Assured as Italy Surges vs. Mexico