For years, a NASCAR race win was essentially a golden ticket to the postseason.
Not anymore.
NASCAR’s revamped playoff format has introduced a new reality in 2026, and for the first time this season, it is creating a scenario that would have been almost impossible under the old system. Despite already visiting Victory Lane, one Cup Series winner currently sits outside the 16-driver playoff field with nine races remaining in the regular season.
That driver is Shane van Gisbergen.
The Trackhouse Racing driver delivered one of the season’s most impressive road-course performances when he won at Watkins Glen in May. But after Sunday’s race at Naval Base Coronado, van Gisbergen fell to 17th in the regular-season standings and is now five points below the playoff cut line.
Under NASCAR’s current format, the top-16 drivers in points qualify for the postseason. Wins still matter because they award valuable playoff points, but they no longer guarantee a spot in the Chase.
That distinction has become one of the biggest storylines emerging from the San Diego weekend.
The New NASCAR Format Is Being Put to the Test
When NASCAR announced its playoff overhaul before the 2026 season, one of the primary goals was ensuring that drivers had to perform consistently throughout the entire regular season.
A single victory would no longer erase months of mediocre results.
For most of the season, that change felt largely theoretical. Nearly every race winner remained comfortably inside the top 16 in points, meaning the playoff field looked almost identical to what it would have under the previous format.
That changed Sunday.
Van Gisbergen entered the Anduril 250 with an opportunity to strengthen his playoff position but instead became involved in a wreck while battling near the front of the field. The result dropped him three spots in the standings and left him on the outside looking in.
Currently, Ryan Preece occupies the 16th and final playoff position with 367 points. Van Gisbergen sits 17th with 362.
It is the first real example of NASCAR’s new system creating consequences for a race winner.
Why Shane van Gisbergen Is Still Very Much in the Fight
The situation sounds dramatic, but van Gisbergen’s postseason hopes are far from over.
Nine races remain before the regular season concludes, and the Trackhouse driver is only five points behind the cutoff. One strong weekend could easily move him back into playoff position.
There is also reason to believe his best tracks are still ahead.
Van Gisbergen remains one of the premier road-course racers in the sport and will have opportunities to score significant points over the final stretch of the regular season. If he can pair those performances with improved results on ovals, climbing back into the top 16 becomes very realistic.
Still, the larger takeaway extends beyond one driver.
For the first time since NASCAR implemented its new format, fans are seeing exactly what the sanctioning body intended. A race win helps, but it no longer provides immunity from the standings.
And with several races remaining before the postseason begins, van Gisbergen’s battle to climb back above the cut line may become one of the most compelling storylines of the summer.
One NASCAR 2026 Winner Is About to Miss the Playoffs. Here’s Why.