Evaluating Luka Doncic Through 6 Games

Luka Doncic

Getty Luka Doncic doesn't agree with a call against the Atlanta Hawks.

Through six games this season, Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks hasn’t quite gotten into a groove. While his production is among the best in the entire NBA, it’s low for his standards to this point in the young star’s career.

Last season, Doncic was absolutely spectacular, averaging 27.7 points, 8.6 assists and 8.0 rebounds per game. This season, he’s averaged 22.5 points, 7.5 assists and 8.5 rebounds per contest.

While the rebounding and assists numbers are similar to last season, the scoring production of Doncic has clearly dropped off. Through the first six matchups of the 2021-22 season, he’s notched just four games with 20 or more points, but hasn’t yet scored 30 points in a single contest.

For reference, Doncic had two 30-point games through his first six games of last season.

What’s to blame for the slow start to the season in terms of scoring?


Beyond the Arc

Through the first six games last season, Doncic scored 155 points on 120 shot attempts. This season through six games, he’s scored 20 fewer points on four more shot attempts.

Doncic is generating the same or more shots each night this season, but hasn’t been able to score as efficiently from the floor.

Luka Doncic

GettyLuka Doncic doesn’t agree with a call against the Atlanta Hawks.

It was a career year for Doncic last season from beyond the arc, converting on 35.0% of his 8.3 attempts from deep. To this point in the 2021-22 season, he’s knocked down just 23.8% of his 7.0 3-point attempts per game.

If there’s anything to point to in terms of the lack of scoring this season, it’s his 3-point efficiency.

This isn’t anything to worry about, as he actually started last season off poorly from that range. In fact, through six games in the 2020-21 season, Doncic shot just 19.5% on 6.8 attempts from deep.

With that in mind, the 3-point shooting could easily straighten itself out once again this season and shouldn’t be anything for Mavs fans to worry about.


Rule Changes

Last season, Doncic averaged 5.2 points per game from the free throw line. As rules have changed entering this season, the league has put an emphasis on calling less fouls in which offensive players initiate contact and make non-basketball moves. As such, many players around the NBA have gotten to the free throw line much less frequently.

Guys like Trae Young and James Harden have been most impacted by these rule changes this season, but Doncic has as well.

To this point in the season, Doncic has attempted 2.4 less free throw attempts per contest than last year, resulting in only generating 3.2 points per game from the line. It hasn’t helped that he has shot just 67.9% from the charity stripe this season.

“Luka is coming into his own right now,” said Tim Hardaway Jr. following a win over the Sacramento Kings. “It’s always tough, especially with the new rules and new situations on how the game is played. It kind of reminds me of when I was watching my dad play in the 90’s. They weren’t really calling much so a lot of those fouls a lot of the star players aren’t getting, Just need to go out there and hoop. Play like you are playing an open run and play through contact and play through fouls and I think that’s what he is starting to get a nice feel for and once he has that going in the game, it’s kind of hard to stop.”

Mavs coach Jason Kidd thinks that players will get used to these rule changes by the end of the season and also is under the impression that the new basketball being used this season could be impacting scorers around the league.

“Rule changes, and by the end of the season they’ll get used to it. I think they’re also getting used to the new ball,” said Kidd on Tuesday.

The NBA recently changed to using a Wilson basketball in games, which players have had to adjust to this season on the offensive end of the floor. While Doncic hasn’t mentioned the new ball being an issue, it could be making an impact on his shooting splits.

Overall, there should be no concern about the slow start offensively for Doncic. He will likely get back in a groove and return to being one of the top MVP favorites in no time. It’s about moving forward each and every game and controlling the things that can be controlled.

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