Pistons Star Jalen Duren Gets Contract Prediction From NBA Expert

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SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 07: Jalen Duren #0 of the Detroit Pistons reacts after teammate Mike Muscala #41 made a three-point shot against the Sacramento Kings in the second quarter at Golden 1 Center on February 07, 2024 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

It’s only a matter of time before the Detroit Pistons find out whether they’ll have Jalen Duren beyond the 2026-2027 NBA season or not.

As a restricted free agent, Duren will have to accept whatever contract Detroit puts on the table, or the qualifying offer, which expires after one year.

Currently, Duren is supermax eligible, but isn’t receiving any offers within that ballpark. According to ESPN’s Tim McMahon, the “ballpark” offer for Duren is somewhere around $180 million over five seasons.

Duren is rumored to desire a $40 million AAV. He’s reportedly being offered $35 million. What could the endgame look like?

NBA Expert Predicts Jalen Duren’s Next Deal

The NBA cap expert Keith Smith took a stab at guessing what Duren’s AAV could look like when the saga is all said and done.

“Jalen Duren wants something around $40M per year. The Pistons are offering $35M per year. This will probably land with Duren getting $37-38M per year. Just gotta battle it out for a bit longer. (This is what happened with Josh Giddey/Bulls last season.),” Smith of Spotrac wrote on Tuesday, September 1.

Duren won’t be entirely happy either way. He played well enough in 2025-2026 to become eligible for the max, yet his playoff struggles destroyed his market value. Two teams told him he’s max-caliber (Lakers, Kings). Neither could make that a real offer this summer, with the Lakers pivoting to another option.

The Pistons Should Stand Strong

The Pistons need the 22-year-old standout back in 2026-2027.

Despite the playoff struggles, he played well enough to enter the All-Star/All-NBA conversation. In 70 games, Duren averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds. He was a big reason why the Pistons could secure the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Without any market pressure, the Pistons are playing their cards right. The waiting game and friction could cause an awkward scene at the start of the year, but the Pistons will soon need to make it known to Duren that he’s needed and hope that they can find common ground to avoid the qualifying offer route.