The Golden State Warriors have a clear offseason vision. Land LeBron James with the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and build one final contending roster around Stephen Curry. The framework exists. The salary math, however, requires everything to fall into place.
One piece of that puzzle has received less attention than the James pursuit itself. What happens with Kristaps Porzingis could be just as important to Golden State’s offseason as whether James actually signs.
A new report outlines how Porzingis could be the key to making the Warriors’ LeBron pursuit work.
The Porzingis Puzzle
GettyKristaps Porzingis of the Golden State Warriors.
According to SI.com’s Joey Akeley, the Warriors’ best-case scenario this offseason is to use the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception on James and re-sign Porzingis at a significantly reduced salary. The complication is that using the NTMLE hard-caps Golden State at the first apron, limiting total salary commitments to $209 million.
Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus went as far as predicting that Porzingis could sign for as little as $7.5 million to help the Warriors stay under that threshold. For context, Porzingis made $30.7 million last season.
That would be a dramatic pay cut. But Porzingis has missed 90 regular-season games over the last two seasons, and his market value entering this offseason carries one of the widest ranges of any free agent. Somewhere between $10 million and $25 million is the realistic window, with $7.5 million sitting at the very low end of what he might accept.
Why Porzingis Matters to the Warriors
The LeBron pursuit gets the headlines, but Porzingis is the piece that makes the roster functional. James shot just 31.7 percent from three last season. Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler are both below 34 percent from deep for their careers. Adding all three without a credible perimeter threat at center creates real spacing problems.
Porzingis solves that. His career three-point percentage sits at 36.4 percent, and more importantly, defenses respect his shot enough to stay attached to him, which opens driving lanes for James, Butler, and Curry. The Warriors have Al Horford and Quinten Post as stretch options at center, but neither carries the offensive threat Porzingis brings at his best.
Getting James without Porzingis leaves a significant hole at center that Golden State would struggle to fill from the veteran minimum pool.
How the Numbers Work
GettyStephen Curry will reportedly attempt to recruit LeBron James to the Warriors this offseason.
The path to landing both requires a few things to go right simultaneously. Draymond Green is expected to decline his $27.7 million player option and sign a multi-year deal at a lower annual salary, which would create meaningful cap relief. If De’Anthony Melton also opts out and signs elsewhere, the Warriors gain additional flexibility.
Under a scenario where Green comes back at around $21 million and Porzingis signs for $7.5 million, the roster projections show Golden State staying under the first apron while accommodating James at the full NTMLE value. If Green’s number drops further or Melton moves on, Porzingis could potentially get closer to $12.5 million.
The variables are significant. None of this is guaranteed.
Final Word for the Warriors
The LeBron pursuit is the story. But Porzingis may be the key that unlocks it.
If he is willing to wait for the Warriors to finalize the James situation and then sign for whatever space remains, Golden State has a real shot at constructing something special around Curry before his current deal expires.
If Porzingis wants his number early and on his terms, the Warriors will have to build around whatever is left.
His decision shapes everything.
Warriors Get New Kristaps Porzingis Twist in LeBron James Plan