The Golden State Warriors have moved up in the latest LeBron James sweepstakes.
Updated odds from Underdog Fantasy now give the Warriors a 17% implied probability of signing the four-time NBA champion, pushing them ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers, who slipped to 13%.
The shift came shortly after ESPN NBA insider Dave McMenamin reported Friday that James is “truly getting much closer to a decision,” though he added that an Eastern Conference team appears to have gained the upper hand.
The Miami Heat now lead the field with a 35% implied probability, followed by the Cleveland Cavaliers at 29%.
While the latest market movement suggests Golden State still trails the two Eastern Conference favorites, it also reinforces that the Warriors remain firmly in the conversation as James’ long-awaited decision draws near.
McMenamin: Eastern Conference Has Edge, But Warriors Remain Alive
Appearing on SportsCenter from Fanatics Fest in New York, McMenamin said conversations around the league over the past 24 hours increasingly point toward James landing with an Eastern Conference franchise.
“I’ve not been told that any of those teams are eliminated,” McMenamin said. “But in the conversations I’ve had in the last 24 hours in New York City, it seems like an Eastern Conference team will win the LeBron James sweepstakes.”
McMenamin later identified Miami and Cleveland as the two teams carrying the most momentum.
The Warriors were not among the frontrunners he mentioned.
They also were not ruled out.
For Golden State, that distinction is important, with James expected to announce his decision within days.
Warriors Still Offer a Unique Advantage
Getty LeBron James walks with his daughter, Zhuri, during the 2024 Paris Olympics. James recently revealed that his youngest daughter is playing a significant role in his free-agency decision as he prepares to leave the Lakers.
Even as momentum shifts toward the East, Golden State continues to possess a recruiting pitch few teams can match.
Stephen Curry remains the centerpiece.
The possibility of watching two of the defining players of their generation join forces before retirement has long fueled speculation around the league. After Curry and James helped Team USA capture Olympic gold in Paris, the idea no longer feels purely hypothetical.
There is another factor that could work in Golden State’s favor.
James recently acknowledged that family considerations—particularly the wishes of his nearly 12-year-old daughter, Zhuri—are playing a significant role in his decision.
Speaking during CNBC and Boardroom’s Game Plan event with Rich Kleiman, James revealed he spoke privately with Zhuri before news of his departure from the Los Angeles Lakers became public.
“So, the family portion is a big thing, too,” James said.
Golden State’s Proximity is an Advantage
Andscape’s Marc J. Spears later suggested those comments reinforced one of the Warriors’ biggest advantages.
Unlike Cleveland, Miami or Philadelphia, Golden State would allow James to remain on the West Coast, just a short flight from the Los Angeles home where his family has spent the past eight years.
Speaking on 95.7 The Game’s Willard and Dibs, Spears pointed to Chris Paul’s 2023-24 season with the Warriors, when the veteran guard regularly traveled back to Southern California to spend time with his family.
“I haven’t given up on the Warriors because of the family aspect,” Spears said. “I think today that part got reinforced by what he said to Rich Kleiman.”
If proximity to his family ultimately becomes a deciding factor, Golden State could hold an advantage that extends well beyond basketball.
Decision Appears Imminent
McMenamin indicated James has entered the final stage of his free-agency process after gathering the information he wanted from every finalist.
“Multiple sources familiar with his thinking told me in the last 24 hours that he is truly getting much closer to a decision,” McMenamin said.
According to McMenamin, James is now discussing his options with his family before ultimately trusting his instincts.
The ESPN insider said a decision could come as early as Sunday, Monday or Tuesday.
The latest odds suggest Golden State faces longer odds than Miami and Cleveland.
But they also show the Warriors have strengthened their standing relative to Philadelphia.
With James’ decision approaching, Golden State remains one of the few franchises still positioned to make a compelling final pitch—one built not only around pairing him with Curry for one last championship chase, but also around allowing his family to remain close to the life they’ve built in Southern California.
Warriors Receive Surprising LeBron James Odds Boost After Insider Update