With the 2026 NBA Draft around the corner, the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade sweepstakes are expected to reach their conclusion soon.
On Monday, June 22, the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics have been regarded as the two finalists for the superstar forward.
In the weeks leading up to draft week, it seemed like the Heat were the overwhelming favorites to win the sweepstakes. Now, the Celtics are seriously a threat.
The prediction market action is reflecting all of that.
Miami Heat’s Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade Chances Get Drastic Shift
GettyMILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – JANUARY 23: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks is defended by Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat during the first half of a game at Fiserv Forum on January 23, 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
On June 21, the Miami Heat’s trade chance for Antetokounmpo on Kalshi was set as high as 62.6%.
After a morning filled with rumors from credible NBA insiders, there has been a massive shift.
The Boston Celtics jumped 44 points–they are now the overwhelming favorites at 69%
As for the Heat, they dropped to 35%. The chance for Giannis to stay with the Bucks is down to 5.0% as of Monday. (Note: the trade chances percentages are subject to change.)
Why The Heat Are Losing Steam
GettyMIAMI, FLORIDA – MARCH 12: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks looks on against the Miami Heat during the first quarter at Kaseya Center on March 12, 2026 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tomas Diniz Santos/Getty Images)
The Bucks want to secure the best package possible for Antetokounmpo.
With the NBA world knowing that Giannis is finished playing for the Bucks, Milwaukee’s front office lost a lot of leverage–especially since Antetokounmpo dealt with multiple injuries throughout the 2025-2026 season.
Before the Celtics were ready to make a true blockbuster deal, the Heat had the best package to offer. Most frameworks suggest that Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and the No. 13 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft will come from Miami.
As for Boston, they are rumored to be willing to move the biggest star of them all, Jaylen Brown. For the Bucks, that could give them another instant All-Star to add to the roster or to flip for a follow-up move.
While the Heat could up their offer, they are beginning to grow hesitant. The package on the table is already a lot. Building a competitive roster with Giannis will be too difficult if Miami gives up too much in order to acquire him.
Unless Giannis pushes harder for a move to Miami, the Celtics will continue to gain support as the favorites.