History suggests the Minnesota Timberwolves have less than a 16% chance of beating the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference semifinals, following their 126-97 blowout loss in Game 5 on Tuesday.
That’s because the Spurs are historically 16-3 in best-of-seven series when they take a 3-2 lead in the playoffs.
And even if the Timberwolves force a Game 7 back in San Antonio, their chances of advancing to the Western Conference Finals are slim at best. Again, history favors the Spurs, who have a 60% win rate (3-2) at home in Game 7s, with their last such loss coming in the 2006 Western Conference semifinals against the Dallas Mavericks.
T’Wolves ‘Not Worried’ About 3-2 Hole
To their credit, the Timberwolves expressed confidence that they will force a Game 7 after their lopsided loss in Game 5 on Tuesday.
“I don’t see nobody in our locker room that’s too worried,” All-Star guard Anthony Edwards said after the game, via ESPN’s Anthony Slater.
“There’s another basketball game. Come out, put your boots on and get ready to go to war.”
The Timberwolves also stand to benefit from the rare two-day break before Friday’s Game 6 at home, as Edwards highlighted.
“I’m so happy. I’m ready to get two days, and I’m excited for it,” Edwards said of the break. The rest particularly benefits Edwards, who has braved injuries to both of his knees throughout the playoffs, including a bone bruise he sustained in the first-round series against the Denver Nuggets. Even key guard Ayo Dosunmu has been dealing with calf soreness that held him out of Game 6 vs. the Nuggets and Game 1 vs. the Spurs.
Spurs One Win Away from WCF
As for the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama led the way with 27 points, 17 rebounds, five assists and three blocks, bouncing back after receiving a career-first ejection in Game 4. The NBA announced that Wemby became the third-youngest player in NBA playoffs history to post a statline of 25+ points, 15+ rebounds and 5+ assists.
Wemby entered the game under much scrutiny after many felt he should have been suspended for throwing an errant elbow to the jawline and neck of Naz Reid in Game 4, which led to his ejection. After the Game 5 win, Wemby tried to downplay his ejection.
“It was two days ago,” Wemby said of his ejection, via ESPN’s Michael C. Wright.
“I was focused on the game today. And now, I’m focusing on the game in Minnesota in three days. It’s the playoffs. We’ve got to move on, and I’ve got to care about my team.”
Wemby set the tone with 16 points within the first six minutes and 18 points in the first quarter, tying a Spurs record for fourth most points in a quarter in the play-by-play era. Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson praised his young star for setting the tone.
“There was a lot that happened in the last 48 hours,” Johnson said of Wemby.
“I think how that young man came out tonight and played in a variety of ways in a variety of situations, not just in terms of his production, was extremely mature.”
Spurs vs Timberwolves Game 6 tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET on Friday.
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