The uncertainty surrounding James Harden’s next team is not considerable, but recently, prediction markets have cast some doubt.
Harden remains one of the biggest names available in NBA free agency, and as of yesterday, the chance he stayed with the Cleveland Cavaliers was above 90%.
As of 9:18 a.m. Eastern time on Monday, July 13, Polymarket now gives the Cavaliers a 78% chance of being Harden’s next team.
The Phoenix Suns moved up the list to second at 19%, followed by the Miami Heat at 7%.
The Philadelphia 76ers moved down to distant fourth at 5%, while the Los Angeles Lakers are at 3% with the Boston Celtics at 2%.
A separate Kalshi market doesn’t show the recent Cavs dip and has stay relatively the same.
Kalshi gave Harden an 83% chance of staying with the Cavaliers or retiring, with the Dallas Mavericks a distant second at 11%. The Suns are listed at 8% and the Houston Rockets are listed at 5%.
The gap between teams probabilities sends mixed messages, but it still reflects weeks of reporting that Harden and the Cavaliers have been working toward another contract since the 11-time All-Star declined his player option.
Markets See Little Chance Harden Leaves Cavaliers
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported on June 29 that Harden declined his $42.3 million option for the 2026-27 season and entered negotiations with Cleveland on a new multiyear deal.
That decision technically placed Harden on the open market.
The Cavaliers initially acquired Harden from the Los Angeles Clippers at the February trade deadline, sending Darius Garland and a second-round pick to Los Angeles. And this move changed Cleveland’s postseason ambitions.
The Cavaliers reached the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2018 before the Knicks swept them.
Harden averaged 20.5 points and 7.7 assists over 26 regular-season games with Cleveland, offense another primary ballhandler next to Donovan Mitchell and helping stabilize a team that had repeatedly stalled early in the playoffs.
Cleveland also made a significant commitment to Mitchell this offseason, signing him to a four-year, $273 million maximum extension.
Keeping Harden would preserve the veteran backcourt the Cavaliers trusted during their deepest playoff run in eight years.
And although he has played for six organizations, little credible reporting has connected him to a serious alternative this summer.
Harden’s Contract Could Shape Cavaliers’ LeBron Pursuit
The unresolved question is the structure of Harden’s contract.
Reuters reported that Harden could sacrifice more than $10 million per season in exchange for a longer agreement and additional guaranteed money. Cleveland carried the NBA’s highest payroll last season, making the annual value of his next deal important even if the destination feels settled.
There is another occurrence to keep in mind.
NBA insider Jake Fischer reported on Bleacher Report that Harden is prepared to remain patient while Cleveland waits for LeBron James to make his free-agent decision.
A smaller starting salary or an additional contract year could give the Cavaliers more room to pursue James while keeping their core intact. So, the delay may reflect Cleveland trying to arrange several expensive pieces in the right order.
Furthermore, Harden turns 37 in August, and a long-term agreement would carry risk.
But his first partial season in Cleveland gave the Cavaliers what they wanted when they traded away a younger All-Star guard: another proven creator who could help Mitchell carry an offense deep into May.
Will James commit, and we’ll see another season of Harden providing key performances for the Cavaliers?
NBA Free Agency: Harden’s Cavaliers Prediction Slipping Despite LeBron Buzz