The NBA’s salary cap is set to increase in the 2027-28 season. Even so, after years of rapid growth teams may have to adjust their expectations of financial flexibility. Per a memo given to the teams, the league is projecting a $174 million salary cap for the 2027-28 season, a 5.5% increase from the $164.961 million cap for the upcoming 2026-27 season. The figure gives franchises an early look at the financial environment they could be operating in. Particularly with several major contracts and free-agency decisions looming over the next few seasons for teams that have assembled championship-level rosters.
The most recent estimate keeps up the upward trend in the NBA’s salary cap even if the pace has slowed. It shot up by 10% for the 2025-26 season and then increased by an additional 6.67% for the 2026-27 season, and now, a projected rise of 5.5% would be the smallest annual increase ih the last 3 season. Although the difference seems minor, even a few percentage points can have significant consequences with contracts amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars being at stake.
The salary cap directly influences the maximum salaries available to players, making the projection particularly important for stars approaching extensions or free agency. A higher cap allows maximum contracts to rise, while also giving teams additional room to absorb large salaries. Victor Wembanyama’s five-year extension with the San Antonio Spurs is one early example of how the 2027-28 projection can affect contract calculations. His deal is based partly on a projected $174 million cap, illustrating how teams and agents already use future estimates when negotiating major extensions.
The projection is also important because the NBA’s financial restrictions extend well beyond the salary cap itself. The first apron is projected to sit significantly above the cap, while the second apron is expected to approach $234 million in 2027-28. Those thresholds have become increasingly important under the league’s current CBA, with teams above them facing restrictions that can limit trades, exceptions and other roster-building options.
That has made future cap projections essential for front offices. Teams cannot simply consider whether they can afford a particular player. They must also determine where that contract could leave them relative to the tax and apron thresholds several years down the road.
Golden State is one franchise that could have an interesting decision to make around that period. Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green are all currently positioned to potentially come off the Warriors‘ books around the 2027 offseason, although extensions and future roster moves could change that picture. A $174 million cap would give the franchise a useful baseline for determining how much flexibility it could have.
The broader league landscape could look considerably different by then as well. Teams that preserve flexibility may be positioned to pursue major free agents, while franchises carrying expensive rosters could find themselves constrained by the apron system despite the rising cap. That makes the timing of extensions and trades increasingly important.
All in all, the $174 million figure is still a projection rather than a final number. League revenue could push the cap higher or lower before the 2027-28 season arrives. For now, though, teams have a clearer financial target around which to build their long-term plans.
NBA Salary Cap Projected to Reach $174 Million in 2027-28 as Growth Begins to Slow