The San Antonio Spurs may be the betting favorites in the NBA Finals, but the New York Knicks are the team of destiny, and history favors them.
Per ESPN Research, the Knicks have a 62.5% chance of beating the Spurs in the NBA Finals based on an interesting historical marker.
History suggests teams in the Finals are 5-3 while coming off a sweep against an opponent that needed seven games to win the Conference Finals. In this instance, the Knicks enter the Finals following two consecutive sweeps, while the Spurs endured a grueling seven-game series against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
“This is the ninth Finals matchup between a team that swept its previous series and an opponent that was forced to go seven games. The team coming off the sweep went 5-3 in the previous Finals matchups, according to ESPN Research.”
The most recent example of this trend saw the Denver Nuggets beat the Miami Heat, 4-1, in the 2023 NBA Finals after sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers in the West Finals. The Heat, like this year’s Spurs, endured a gruelling seven-game series before the Finals.
Knicks Gain More Backing
The Spurs open the NBA Finals as -220 favorites and Game 1 as 4.5-point favorites. However, several scouts and executives around the leage are shocked that the Spurs start as favorites, given the Knicks’ scorching run in these playoffs.
“You know the more and more people I’ve talked to around the league, scouts and other coaches, they’re really surprised that the Spurs are favored by as much as they are,” NBA insider Brian Windhorst told ESPN’s “Get Up” on Tuesday.
“They get with [Victor] Wembanyama and how tough the West playoffs were, but they really believe that the Knicks have some advantages in the series and that this thing could absolutely go New York’s way.”
Charles Barkley Also Backs Knicks
Those scouts and coaches aren’t alone. Hall of Famer Charles Barkley is also backing the Knicks to capture the NBA championship.
“I got the Knicks in six,” Barkley told ESPN Radio’s “Freddie and Harry” on Monday.
“I think the Knicks have been the best team in the playoffs — anybody who knows anything about basketball knows that,” he added.
Barkley downplayed the theory that the Knicks have had an easier path to the Finals, highlighting that they obliterated the 76ers and Cavaliers, and didn’t just beat them.
“…You can hate on the Knicks all you want, but this has been one of the great runs in NBA history. The numbers say that,” Barkley said of the Knicks.
“They ain’t squeaking by nobody, but pounding people. I’m picking the Knicks in six.”
During their 11-game winning streak, the Knicks have maintained a +262 points differential — the best all-time by any team in the regular season or playoffs. During this stretch, they have shot 53.3% from the field and 41.3% from three, while holding opponents to 99.1 points per contest — 43% from the field and 29.2% from three.
Game 1 of the Knicks vs Spurs NBA Finals tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
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