Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder missed their first chance to close out the San Antonio Spurs, but the betting market is still sending a loud message before Game 7.
Gilgeous-Alexander remains the favorite to win NBA Finals MVP on the latest DraftKings odds board, despite the Thunder not yet being guaranteed a spot in the Finals. The board lists SGA at +125, ahead of Spurs star Victor Wembanyama at +290 and Knicks guard Jalen Brunson at +265.
Heavy
That makes the timing notable. San Antonio just forced Game 7 with a 118-91 win in Game 6, meaning the Thunder’s season is still one bad night away from ending. Reuters reported that Wembanyama led the Spurs with 28 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks, while Gilgeous-Alexander was held to 15 points in the blowout loss.
The winner of Thunder-Spurs Game 7 will face the New York Knicks in the NBA Finals, according to Reuters. That is what makes the SGA odds so eye-catching: the Thunder still have to get there, but sportsbooks are still pricing him like the player most likely to define the Finals.
SGA’s Postseason Numbers Still Explain the Finals MVP Odds
The Game 6 loss was not Gilgeous-Alexander’s best night, but his larger postseason resume is still doing a lot of work.
SGA is averaging 28.0 points, 8.2 assists and 3.0 rebounds through 13 playoff games, according to StatMuse. That is slightly down from his regular-season scoring pace, where Gilgeous-Alexander had 31.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game for the 2025-26 regular season.
Still, the profile is obvious. Gilgeous-Alexander is the Thunder’s offensive engine, the defending champion’s No. 1 option and now a two-time MVP.
The Spurs series has been more complicated. StatMuse’s game log shows SGA opened the Western Conference finals with 24 points and 12 assists in Game 1, followed with 30 points and 9 assists in Game 2, had 26 points and 12 assists in Game 3, then scored 19 points in Game 4 and 32 points with 9 assists in Game 5.
Game 6 was the outlier in the wrong direction. San Antonio’s defense held him to 15 points, and the Spurs turned the game with a 20-0 third-quarter run while holding SGA to a poor shooting night.
That creates the real Game 7 tension: SGA has done enough this postseason to remain the Finals MVP favorite, but Wembanyama and the Spurs just showed they can make him look uncomfortable.
GettyOKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA – MAY 18: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder looks on before being presented with the Michael Jordan Trophy after being named the NBA’s most valuable player before Game One of the NBA Western Conference Finals against the San Antonio Spurs at Paycom Center on May 18, 2026 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
Victor Wembanyama Is Right Behind SGA on the Finals MVP Board
Wembanyama’s placement on the DraftKings chart is just as important as SGA’s.
The Spurs big man is listed at +290, second among the players shown, behind only Gilgeous-Alexander. That tracks with his Game 6 response. Wembanyama finished with 28 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks in the Spurs’ elimination-game win, while San Antonio forced a winner-take-all Game 7 in Oklahoma City.
This is not just a star-vs.-star market. It is a direct read on Game 7. If Oklahoma City wins, SGA enters the Finals as the obvious face of the Thunder’s title push. If San Antonio wins, Wembanyama’s case could strengthen instantly because he would have knocked out the reigning champions and dragged the Spurs into the Finals.
The broader Finals MVP market has been centered around those two for weeks. Sports Illustrated listed Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama as the top two opening Finals MVP choices at DraftKings before the playoffs, with SGA at +130 and Wembanyama at +500.
Now, with one game left in the West, the gap has tightened, but SGA is still on top.
Thunder Injuries Add Another Layer Before Game 7
The Thunder’s injury situation also matters because Oklahoma City needs more than a huge SGA game to survive San Antonio.
Ajay Mitchell has been out with a right soleus strain, while Jalen Williams has been managing a left hamstring strain. Mitchell was out for Game 6 and Williams was available after the hamstring issue.
Williams’ return was important for the Thunder even if Game 6 got away from them. Williams was available for Game 6 after previously being listed as questionable, but he came off the bench and was limited to 10 minutes.
That makes his Game 7 status and workload one of Oklahoma City’s biggest swing factors. When healthy, Williams gives the Thunder another creator, defender and pressure release next to Gilgeous-Alexander. Without Mitchell, Oklahoma City loses another guard who can help stabilize the second unit and keep SGA from carrying every possession.
That is the danger for Oklahoma City. The odds board still believes in SGA. Game 7 will determine whether that belief gets carried into the Finals, or whether Wembanyama takes the spot that Gilgeous-Alexander is still favored to claim.
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