All the way back in 1992, Shaquille O’Neal entered the NBA and began what would become a Hall-of-Fame calibre career.
Shaq was drafted by the Orlando Magic in what, it would transpire, was the first of back-to-back first overall picks for the Florida franchise. Selecting Chris Webber the following season before immediately trading him in a teal that saw them come away with Penny Hardaway and three future picks instead, the Magic had lucked into a special young duo and a foundational core for the future in only 12 calendar months.
That is, of course, if it truly was “luck”.
One For The Conspiracy Fans
Because it now takes place behind closed doors, the NBA’s draft lottery has often been a breeding ground for conspiracy theorists. Yet even in the days when was not conducted out of sight, conspiratorial thinking abounded. For example, the “frozen envelop” theory surrounding the 1985 Draft Lottery – in which the New York Knicks beat the odds to land the chance to select Patrick Ewing – is still being talked about four decades later.
It follows that anyone truly committed to being conspiratorially-minded can create a narrative for any eventuality. Fourteen teams had picks in the 2025 NBA Draft lottery, and for each of those fourteen, a story as to why the NBA would have rigged the odds in their favour could have been concocted. Start from the end point, work backwards, and make the evidence fit the conclusion. Simple to do, should you want to.
Nonetheless, a can of gasoline was poured onto the flames of pessimism when it transpired that it was in fact the Dallas Mavericks who had won. With a mere 1.8% chance of winning that all poker players know never work in your favour, the Mavericks moved up from the 11th pick to first, and a likely selection of Cooper Flagg, mere months after trading incumbent superstar Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers in a shock deal that might go down as one of the worst of all time.
To the cynical eye, it could have looked like a bail-out move. A quid pro quo from the league, perhaps; a surreptitious transaction in which the NBA agreed to give Dallas the first overall pick if they would steer Doncic to the Lakers, and galvanise the league’s biggest market team. And ever with a keen eye for inserting himself into a story, Shaq has fanned the flames further.
“You hear a lot of these conspiracy theories, and there’s a lot of situations that can make things sound good and sound true. OK, Dallas gets rid of one of the best players, but, oh, we’re getting a new one. Ding, ding, ding, ding,ding…It’s very interesting how it all played out.”
– Shaqulle O’Neal
Shaq Might Not Be The Most Reliable Witness
Speaking to Ashley Nevel, Shaq riffed on the aforementioned Mavericks theories, before making a new one of his own. Amid a wider-ranging interview, O’Neal told the story of how, prior to his own draft selection – in which he was a unanimous number one pick, and a near-certainty to be selected by whichever time won – he met with then-NBA Commissioner, the late David Stern, who asked him, “do you want to play where it’s cold or where it’s hot?”
The inference there is obvious and unsubtle. Stern, O’Neal is suggesting, had both the power to determine where Shaq would go, and the willingness to use it. And having answered “hot”, he subsequently became a member of the Magic.
For reference, the second and third picks that year went to the Charlotte Hornets and Minnesota Timberwolves respectively. Cities with slightly less in the way of sunshine than Orlando.
The same powers of cynicism, however, could be applied to Shaq’s story. The pessimist could ask him why, if this exchange really happened and the inference was as heavy as Shaq is now implying it was, why he has not told this story before. Shaq’s claim opens up plenty of scope for scrutiny and critical thinking, something the conspiratorially-minded claim to be best at. Simple to do, should they want to.
If nothing else, we should consider the source. With his playing days behind him, O’Neal is now a professional pundit, and thus a de facto entertainer. This does not immediately disqualify the words he says. But it does add an important caveat to them.
Is Shaq telling the truth, or is he having fun with the discussion in a way that cannot be disproven one way or the other? Only Stern could truly verify the story, and he died in 2020. Anecdotes are fun, but not exactly persuasive. Ultimately, then, both belief and disbelief become a choice.
Shaq Alludes to Controversial NBA Draft Conspiracy